North Carolina Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Roy Cooper 761,345 97.4%
Marcus Williams 20,336 2.6%

Republican Primary

Held March 3, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Michael Whatley 405,140 68.8%
Don Brown 97,891 16.6%
Thomas Johnson 35,534 6.0%
Michele Morrow 35,065 6.0%
Margot Dupre 14,886 2.5%

Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Thom Tillis)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Lean R
Polls
3 polls

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+9.0 · 3 polls
⚑ Our polls diverge from the expert consensus — the story to watch.

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 30 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean R

Inside Elections

Lean R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans R
Changed from Lean R on Feb 1

Candidates

Roy Cooper Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $34,975,789
Cash on Hand: $20,717,567
Michael Whatley

Michael Whatley Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $11,272,504
Cash on Hand: $3,461,698

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
50.0%
Republican
41.0%
Margin
D+9.0
Last Poll
Aug 12, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 30 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
High Point University/YouGov 2026-08-12 800 RV ±4.20 Roy Cooper 48.00% Michael Whatley 41.00%
Carolina Journal/Harper 2026-08-10 600 LV ±4.00 Cooper 52.00% Whatley 39.00%
Carolina Forward/Change Res. 2026-08-06 915 LV ±3.50 Cooper 50.00% Whatley 43.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 50% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+9.0 margin based on 3 polls from the last 30 days.

Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, meaning Democrats are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible. Note: our polling average (Likely D) diverges from the expert consensus (Lean R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from High Point University/YouGov (completed August 12, 2026), found Roy Cooper (D) at 48% and Michael Whatley (R) at 41%.

When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 30 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Tillis retiring

Independent Expenditures Updated just now

$7,973,881
Total IE Spending
$274,983
Support
$7,698,899
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

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