Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper ✓ | 761,345 | 97.4% | |
| Marcus Williams | 20,336 | 2.6% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whatley ✓ | 405,140 | 68.8% | |
| Don Brown | 97,891 | 16.6% | |
| Thomas Johnson | 35,534 | 6.0% | |
| Michele Morrow | 35,065 | 6.0% | |
| Margot Dupre | 14,886 | 2.5% |
Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-10-11 | 643 LV | Roy Cooper 54.00% | Michael Whatley 40.00% | |
| Trafalgar Group (R) partisan·R 2024 err 1.8 | 2026-10-10 | 1091 LV | ±2.90 | Roy Cooper 49.00% | Michael Whatley 41.00% |
| Change Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-10-07 | 829 LV | ±3.70 | Roy Cooper 50.00% | Michael Whatley 40.00% |
| East Carolina University | 2026-10-03 | 810 LV | ±4.00 | Roy Cooper 50.00% | Michael Whatley 43.00% |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-29 | 642 LV | ±4.00 | Cooper 51.00% | Whatley 39.00% |
| Rasmussen Reports 2024 err 2.1 | 2026-09-22 | 1047 LV | ±3.00 | Cooper 48.00% | Whatley 41.00% |
| Quantus Insights partisan·R | 2026-09-22 | 688 LV | ±4.20 | Cooper 48.00% | Whatley 43.00% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) 2024 err 1.9 R-sponsored | 2026-09-20 | 1806 LV | ±2.90 | Roy Cooper 53.00% | Michael Whatley 42.00% |
| Opinion Diagnostics partisan·R | 2026-09-20 | 857 LV | ±3.30 | Roy Cooper 51.00% | Michael Whatley 41.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-09-18 | 3864 RV | ±2.50 | Roy Cooper 52.00% | Michael Whatley 41.00% |
| YouGov | 2026-09-18 | 3745 LV | ±2.60 | Cooper 53.00% | Whatley 41.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 51% to 40.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+10.7 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from SurveyUSA (completed October 11, 2026), found Roy Cooper (D) at 54% and Michael Whatley (R) at 40%.
When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Tillis retiring
Independent Expenditures Updated 28 min ago
Top Spenders
- SLF PAC GOP-aligned $9,320,930
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $8,800,393
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION GOP-aligned $1,688,439
- PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES NORTH CAROLINA Dem-aligned $885,132
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $881,982
- WORKERS VOTE Dem-aligned $374,639
- CFFE PAC Dem-aligned $296,141
- MOMSRISING TOGETHER Dem-aligned $226,261
- CARE IN ACTION PAC Dem-aligned $176,664
- UNITED FUTURES PAC Dem-aligned $155,583
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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