North Carolina Senate Race

2026 Election • Class 2
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Primary

Primary held March 3, 2026.

Democratic Primary

CandidateVotes%
Roy Cooper 761,345 92.0%
Justin Dues 22,295 2.7%
Marcus Williams 20,336 2.5%
Orrick Quick 7,275 0.9%
Robert Colon 6,777 0.8%

Republican Primary

CandidateVotes%
Michael Whatley 405,140 64.6%
Don Brown 97,891 15.6%
Thomas Johnson 35,534 5.7%
Michele Morrow 35,065 5.6%
Elizabeth Temple 23,892 3.8%
Richard Dansie 14,996 2.4%
Margot Dupre 14,886 2.4%

Full calendar and every race: North Carolina primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Thom Tillis)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Lean R
Polls
7 polls

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+8.0 · 7 polls
⚑ Our polls diverge from the expert consensus — the story to watch.

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Lean R

Inside Elections

Lean R

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Leans R
Changed from Lean R on Feb 1

Candidates

Roy Cooper Nominee

Democrat
Total Raised: $34,975,789
Cash on Hand: $20,717,567
Michael Whatley

Michael Whatley Nominee

Republican
Total Raised: $11,272,504
Cash on Hand: $3,461,698

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
49.0%
Republican
41.0%
Margin
D+8.0
Last Poll
Jul 11, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
PPP 2026-07-11 759 RV ±3.60 Cooper 48.00% Whatley 44.00%
Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D ±2.0 2026-07-11 759 LV ±3.60 Roy Cooper 48.00% Michael Whatley 44.00%
New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 2026-06-27 601 LV ±4.70 Roy Cooper 50.00% Michael Whatley 43.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley 49% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.0 margin based on 7 polls from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, meaning Democrats are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible. Note: our polling average (Likely D) diverges from the expert consensus (Lean R) — that gap makes this a race to watch.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 North Carolina Senate race say?

The most recent public poll, from PPP (completed July 11, 2026), found Cooper (D) at 48% and Whatley (R) at 44%.

When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Tillis retiring

Independent Expenditures Updated 8 hours ago

$1,993,157
Total IE Spending
$79,661
Support
$1,913,496
Oppose

Top Spenders

Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →

Race News