Dan Jones & Associates
18 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 6.4 pts | — | 100% |
| 2017 | 2 | 5.3 pts | D+0.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 9 | 9.4 pts | D+7.9 | 100% |
| 2014 | 5 | 2.8 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-05 | UT Senate | D+5.0 | D+10.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-12 | UT Senate | D+3.0 | D+10.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-13 | UT-3 House | R+27.0 | R+32.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-17 | UT-3 House | R+37.7 | R+32.4 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | UT President | R+8.0 | R+18.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | UT-4 House | R+13.0 | R+12.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | UT President | R+5.0 | R+18.1 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | UT Governor | R+39.0 | R+38.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | ID-2 House | R+26.0 | R+33.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | ID-1 House | R+20.0 | R+36.4 | 16.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | ID President | R+10.0 | R+31.8 | 21.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | UT-4 House | R+18.0 | R+12.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-16 | UT President | R+9.0 | R+18.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | UT-4 House | R+5.0 | R+5.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | UT-3 House | R+51.0 | R+49.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | UT-2 House | R+32.0 | R+28.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | UT-1 House | R+32.0 | R+36.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | UT-4 House | R+9.0 | R+5.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.