Selzer & Co.
35 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 80% |
| 2020 | 4 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 67% |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.7 pts | D+4.7 | 0% |
| 2016 | 19 | 4.2 pts | D+3.2 | 63% |
| 2014 | 5 | 4.2 pts | D+3.3 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-02 | IA Governor | R+17.0 | R+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | IA Senate | R+12.0 | R+12.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | IA Governor | R+17.0 | R+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | IA Senate | R+3.0 | R+12.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | IA Senate | R+4.0 | R+6.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | IA President | R+7.0 | R+8.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-16 | IA Senate | D+3.0 | R+6.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-16 | IA President | Even | R+8.2 | 8.2 | — |
| 2018-11-01 | IA Governor | D+2.0 | R+2.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-19 | IA Governor | D+2.0 | R+2.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-05 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | IA President | R+7.0 | R+9.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | IA Senate | R+23.0 | R+24.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | FL President | R+2.0 | R+1.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | FL Senate | R+10.0 | R+7.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | National President | D+9.0 | D+2.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-09 | PA President | D+9.0 | R+0.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-09 | PA Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-05 | IA President | R+4.0 | R+9.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-05 | IA Senate | R+17.0 | R+24.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+5.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-01 | NC Governor | D+6.0 | D+0.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | National President | R+2.0 | D+2.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-11 | OH President | R+5.0 | R+8.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-11 | OH Senate | R+17.0 | R+20.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | IA Governor | R+24.0 | R+21.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | IA Senate | R+7.0 | R+8.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-05 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | IA Governor | R+14.0 | R+21.7 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | IA Senate | R+6.0 | R+8.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.