Digital Research
10 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6 | 7.1 pts | D+6.9 | 83% |
| 2018 | 1 | 4.8 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 3 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-29 | M2 President | R+8.0 | R+7.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | M1 President | D+32.0 | D+23.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | ME-2 House | D+18.0 | D+6.1 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | ME-1 House | D+34.0 | D+24.3 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-29 | ME Senate | D+1.0 | R+8.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-29 | ME President | D+11.0 | D+9.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | ME Senate | R+20.0 | R+24.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | ME-2 House | R+5.0 | R+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | ME-1 House | D+34.0 | D+29.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | ME Governor | R+3.0 | R+4.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.