Ward Research
3 scored general-election polls (2014) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3 | 4.4 pts | D+1.6 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-15 | HI-1 House | Even | D+3.9 | 3.9 | — |
| 2014-10-15 | HI Governor | D+12.0 | D+12.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | HI Senate | D+51.0 | D+42.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.