Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
50 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 1.4 pts | R+0.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 24 | 7.5 pts | D+7.4 | 83% |
| 2018 | 6 | 7.1 pts | D+5.0 | 50% |
| 2017 | 1 | 0.4 pts | R+0.4 | 100% |
| 2016 | 7 | 6.2 pts | D+5.2 | 83% |
| 2014 | 7 | 5.6 pts | D+3.7 | 83% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-21 | NV Senate | D+1.0 | D+0.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-20 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | PA Senate | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-13 | WI Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-12 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | OH-10 House | R+4.0 | R+16.7 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-13 | GA President | D+7.0 | D+0.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | VA-10 House | D+22.0 | D+13.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | MO Governor | R+2.0 | R+16.4 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | MO President | R+2.0 | R+15.4 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | OH-10 House | R+7.0 | R+16.7 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NC Senate | D+13.0 | R+1.8 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | IA Senate | Even | R+6.6 | 6.6 | — |
| 2020-09-26 | GA Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | TX President | R+2.0 | R+5.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | OH President | R+2.0 | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | IA President | R+2.0 | R+8.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | GA President | D+3.0 | D+0.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | MI Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | AZ Senate | D+12.0 | D+2.4 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | WI President | D+7.0 | D+0.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | PA President | D+11.0 | D+1.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | MI President | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | FL President | D+6.0 | R+3.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-18 | AZ President | D+11.0 | D+0.3 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | KY-6 House | D+7.0 | R+3.2 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-30 | IL-6 House | D+5.0 | D+7.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | TN Senate | D+2.0 | R+10.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-19 | GA Governor | D+6.0 | R+1.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-09 | IL-6 House | D+3.0 | D+7.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | VA-2 House | D+8.0 | D+2.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2017-04-26 | MT-1 House | R+6.0 | R+5.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | IN-9 House | Even | R+13.7 | 13.7 | — |
| 2016-10-07 | KS-3 House | R+4.0 | R+10.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NJ-5 House | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | NV President | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-29 | NV Senate | R+1.0 | D+2.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-15 | WV President | R+32.0 | R+42.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-15 | WV Governor | D+13.0 | D+6.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | IA Senate | Even | R+8.3 | 8.3 | — |
| 2014-10-16 | MA-6 House | D+11.0 | D+13.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-14 | NJ-5 House | R+5.0 | R+12.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | CT-5 House | D+16.0 | D+6.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | MA-6 House | D+10.0 | D+13.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | CA-7 House | D+4.0 | D+0.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.