Harstad Strategic Research
9 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4 | 11.8 pts | D+11.8 | 67% |
| 2016 | 1 | 12.6 pts | D+12.6 | 100% |
| 2014 | 4 | 5.1 pts | D+5.1 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-12 | AK Senate | D+1.0 | R+12.7 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-04 | AK Senate | Even | R+12.7 | 12.7 | — |
| 2020-09-22 | AK Senate | R+1.0 | R+12.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | AK President | R+1.0 | R+10.1 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-24 | MT-1 House | R+3.0 | R+15.6 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | CO Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-20 | AK Senate | Even | R+2.1 | 2.1 | — |
| 2014-09-23 | IA Senate | Even | R+8.3 | 8.3 | — |
| 2014-09-09 | AK Senate | D+5.0 | R+2.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.