Mellman Group
10 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 9.6 pts | D+2.9 | 0% |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.4 pts | D+1.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 100% |
| 2014 | 4 | 14.2 pts | D+14.2 | 0% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-05 | CA-27 House | D+6.0 | R+6.5 | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-03 | RI-2 House | R+3.0 | D+3.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-12-20 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-20 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | UT-4 House | D+1.0 | D+0.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | OH-7 House | R+7.0 | R+17.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-14 | CO Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.9 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-23 | KY Senate | D+2.0 | R+15.5 | 17.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-21 | ND-1 House | D+2.0 | R+17.1 | 19.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | KY Senate | D+1.0 | R+15.5 | 16.5 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.