GBAO partisan·D
46 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 19 | 7.6 pts | D+7.6 | 63% |
| 2018 | 12 | 3.5 pts | R+1.7 | 82% |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 0% |
| 2016 | 9 | 5.4 pts | D+5.0 | 56% |
| 2014 | 3 | 5.7 pts | D+5.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-12 | OR Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-04 | OR-6 House | D+1.0 | D+2.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | KS Senate | D+1.0 | R+11.4 | 12.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+12.0 | D+3.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | National President | D+13.0 | D+4.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-16 | NM Senate | D+11.0 | D+6.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-16 | NM President | D+13.0 | D+10.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | TX-6 House | R+4.0 | R+8.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | TX-22 House | D+5.0 | R+6.9 | 11.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | TX-10 House | R+2.0 | R+7.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-01 | PA-10 House | D+6.0 | R+6.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | TX-22 House | D+3.0 | R+6.9 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | SC Senate | D+1.0 | R+10.3 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | KS Senate | D+2.0 | R+11.4 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | SC President | R+5.0 | R+11.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-23 | TX-10 House | R+2.0 | R+7.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | IL-13 House | R+1.0 | R+8.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-15 | GA President | D+3.0 | D+0.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | D+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | National President | D+12.0 | D+4.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-21 | OH-12 House | Even | R+4.2 | 4.2 | — |
| 2018-10-20 | TX Senate | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | NY-1 House | R+3.3 | D+1.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-03 | IL-13 House | R+1.0 | R+0.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL-26 House | D+2.0 | D+1.8 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | TX-32 House | D+1.0 | D+6.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | CA-45 House | D+1.0 | D+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | OH-1 House | D+2.0 | R+4.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-10 | IL-13 House | R+5.0 | R+0.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-07-24 | OH-12 House | R+3.0 | R+0.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-07-12 | OH-12 House | R+5.0 | R+0.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-06-11 | OH-12 House | R+7.0 | R+0.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2017-04-30 | GA-6 House | D+2.0 | R+3.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | MN-2 House | D+5.0 | R+1.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | PA-16 House | R+3.0 | R+10.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | IA-1 House | D+1.0 | R+7.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-15 | NV-4 House | D+2.0 | D+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-05 | MN-2 House | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-26 | NH President | D+6.0 | D+0.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-26 | NH Senate | D+3.0 | D+0.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | MN-2 House | D+2.0 | R+1.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-20 | NY-3 House | D+17.0 | D+11.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | CA-10 House | R+8.0 | R+12.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | NY-11 House | Even | R+6.2 | 6.2 | — |
| 2014-09-09 | NJ-3 House | R+3.0 | R+9.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.