WPA Intelligence partisan·R
20 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 1.5 pts | D+0.4 | 80% |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.0 pts | D+0.6 | 100% |
| 2018 | 6 | 9.4 pts | R+9.4 | 83% |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.2 pts | Even | 67% |
| 2014 | 4 | 6.3 pts | R+0.4 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | OK Governor | R+13.0 | R+13.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-17 | NV Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-03 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+0.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | NV Senate | D+3.0 | D+0.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | TX-21 House | R+5.0 | R+6.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-09 | NV President | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-23 | IA-4 House | R+18.0 | R+3.3 | 14.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | TX-21 House | R+12.0 | R+2.6 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | TX Senate | R+9.0 | R+2.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | IA-4 House | R+20.0 | R+3.3 | 16.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | FL-15 House | R+7.0 | R+6.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | MN-2 House | R+3.0 | D+5.5 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-19 | WI Senate | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-09 | MN-2 House | R+3.0 | R+1.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-14 | AZ-2 House | R+19.0 | R+13.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-24 | LA Senate | R+24.0 | R+11.9 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | MD Governor | R+5.0 | R+3.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | MD Governor | D+1.0 | R+3.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-29 | ND-1 House | R+10.0 | R+17.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.