DFM Research
16 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 20.6 pts | — | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 14.1 pts | D+14.1 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.1 pts | R+1.4 | 67% |
| 2016 | 6 | 12.7 pts | D+12.7 | 80% |
| 2014 | 3 | 10.7 pts | D+10.7 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-20 | ND-1 House | D+4.0 | D+24.6 | 20.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | ND President | R+14.0 | R+33.4 | 19.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | ND Governor | R+32.0 | R+40.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | ND President | R+19.0 | R+33.4 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | NE Senate | R+15.0 | R+19.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-24 | NE-2 House | R+7.0 | R+2.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-01-18 | PA-18 House | R+3.0 | D+0.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | MO President | R+9.0 | R+18.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | MO Senate | Even | R+2.8 | 2.8 | — |
| 2016-10-29 | MO Governor | D+6.0 | R+5.6 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-14 | ND President | R+11.0 | R+35.7 | 24.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-08 | WY-1 House | R+16.0 | R+32.1 | 16.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-08 | WY President | R+35.0 | R+46.3 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | NE-2 House | D+5.0 | D+3.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | ND-1 House | R+7.0 | R+17.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-23 | IA-4 House | R+3.0 | R+23.3 | 20.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.