Big Village
50 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 7.5 pts | D+7.5 | 0% |
| 2016 | 26 | 3.6 pts | D+1.6 | 62% |
| 2014 | 19 | 4.9 pts | D+3.1 | 56% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-03 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.8 | R+2.6 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-11-01 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.6 | R+2.6 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.3 | R+2.6 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.4 | R+2.6 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.3 | R+2.6 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | NV President | R+6.0 | D+2.4 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+1.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+3.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | FL Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | AZ Senate | R+13.0 | R+13.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | PA Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | NV Senate | R+2.0 | D+2.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | National President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | OH President | R+4.0 | R+8.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NV President | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | OH Senate | R+16.0 | R+20.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NV Senate | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NC Governor | D+1.0 | D+0.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | National President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | PA President | D+1.0 | R+0.7 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | CO President | R+1.0 | D+4.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | CO Senate | D+10.0 | D+5.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | OH President | R+5.0 | R+8.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | FL President | R+3.0 | R+1.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | FL Senate | R+11.0 | R+7.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | OH Senate | R+21.0 | R+20.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | IA Senate | R+2.0 | R+8.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-21 | GA Governor | D+2.0 | R+7.9 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-21 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | R+7.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-20 | NH Governor | D+6.0 | D+5.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | FL Governor | Even | R+1.1 | 1.1 | — |
| 2014-10-11 | CO Governor | D+1.0 | D+3.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | CO Senate | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | KS Governor | Even | R+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2014-10-04 | KS Senate | D+1.0 | D+10.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | AK Governor | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | AK Senate | R+6.0 | R+2.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+5.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-24 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-10 | NH Senate | Even | D+3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| 2014-09-09 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+8.3 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+5.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.