Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy
22 scored general-election polls (2014–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | 5.8 pts | D+5.8 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 6.7 pts | D+6.7 | 67% |
| 2018 | 5 | 7.5 pts | D+2.7 | 80% |
| 2017 | 2 | 2.0 pts | D+1.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.8 pts | R+4.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 7 | 7.9 pts | D+6.5 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-21 | NJ Governor | D+9.0 | D+3.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2021-09-21 | NJ Governor | D+9.0 | D+3.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | NJ-2 House | D+1.0 | R+5.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | NJ Senate | D+25.0 | D+16.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NJ President | D+20.5 | D+15.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | NJ Senate | D+12.0 | D+11.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | NJ-2 House | D+17.0 | D+7.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | NJ-3 House | R+1.4 | D+1.3 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-23 | NJ Senate | D+1.9 | D+11.2 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | NJ-2 House | D+23.0 | D+7.7 | 15.3 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-21 | NJ Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-08 | NJ Governor | D+18.0 | D+14.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NJ President | D+11.0 | D+14.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-21 | NJ-2 House | R+25.5 | R+22.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-26 | NJ President | D+6.4 | D+14.1 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | NJ-3 House | R+5.0 | R+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | NJ-2 House | R+18.0 | R+24.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | NJ Senate | D+24.0 | D+13.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-07 | NJ Senate | D+9.0 | D+13.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | NJ-2 House | R+5.0 | R+24.2 | 19.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | NJ-3 House | Even | R+9.6 | 9.6 | — |
| 2014-09-07 | NJ Senate | D+13.0 | D+13.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.