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168 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 23 | 4.6 pts | D+4.6 | 91% |
| 2018 | 29 | 5.3 pts | R+0.2 | 64% |
| 2017 | 11 | 4.7 pts | R+2.6 | 73% |
| 2016 | 72 | 5.1 pts | D+3.2 | 51% |
| 2015 | 1 | 23.0 pts | D+23.0 | 100% |
| 2014 | 32 | 6.8 pts | D+3.8 | 69% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-29 | GA Senate | D+3.0 | D+1.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-29 | GA Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AK-1 House | R+5.0 | R+9.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | TX Senate | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AK Senate | R+3.0 | R+12.7 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | TX President | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | OH President | R+2.0 | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NV President | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AZ President | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | AK President | R+9.0 | R+10.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC Governor | D+8.0 | D+4.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | MN Senate | D+14.0 | D+5.2 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-25 | MN President | D+14.0 | D+7.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | MI Senate | D+11.0 | D+1.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | MI President | D+13.0 | D+2.8 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | WI President | D+11.0 | D+0.6 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-23 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-10 | AZ Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-10 | AZ President | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | VT-1 House | D+38.0 | D+43.3 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | VT Governor | R+10.0 | R+14.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-31 | CT Governor | D+9.0 | D+3.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | VT Senate | D+36.0 | D+39.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | FL Senate | D+3.0 | R+0.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-31 | CT Senate | D+23.0 | D+17.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | OH Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | OH Senate | D+9.0 | D+6.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+6.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | AZ Governor | R+13.0 | R+14.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | AZ Senate | R+1.0 | D+2.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-25 | MT-1 House | Even | R+4.6 | 4.6 | — |
| 2018-10-25 | NV Governor | D+2.0 | D+4.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | CA Governor | D+20.0 | D+23.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | MT Senate | D+3.0 | D+3.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | FL Governor | D+5.0 | R+0.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-22 | FL Senate | D+4.0 | R+0.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-14 | IN Senate | D+4.0 | R+5.9 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-08 | OR-5 House | R+23.0 | D+13.2 | 36.2 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-06 | NY Governor | D+23.0 | D+24.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | MT-1 House | R+9.0 | R+4.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | MT Senate | D+4.0 | D+3.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | NV Governor | D+12.0 | D+4.1 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | IA-2 House | D+6.0 | D+12.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-03-03 | PA-18 House | R+3.0 | D+0.3 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-02-14 | PA-18 House | R+5.0 | D+0.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2017-12-07 | AL Senate | R+4.0 | D+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-12-02 | AL Senate | D+4.0 | D+1.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-14 | AL Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-10 | AL Senate | R+2.0 | D+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-01 | VA Governor | D+5.5 | D+8.9 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-31 | NJ Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-05-22 | MT-1 House | R+14.0 | R+5.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-05-21 | SC-5 House | R+13.0 | R+3.1 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-05-09 | GA-6 House | D+2.0 | R+3.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-05-03 | MT-1 House | R+8.0 | R+5.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-04-03 | MT-1 House | R+12.0 | R+5.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | WI President | D+3.0 | R+0.8 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-05 | SC President | R+5.0 | R+14.3 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | PA President | D+6.0 | R+0.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-05 | OR President | D+4.0 | D+11.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | OH President | R+6.0 | R+8.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NY President | D+19.0 | D+24.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NV President | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | GA President | R+4.0 | R+5.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | CO President | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | AZ President | R+2.0 | R+3.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | AK President | R+3.0 | R+14.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | NV Senate | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-03 | MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-03 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+5.7 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | NM President | D+8.0 | D+8.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH President | R+2.0 | D+0.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | FL President | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | CO President | Even | D+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2016-11-01 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | FL Senate | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | PA Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | CO Senate | D+3.0 | D+5.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | PA President | D+1.0 | R+0.7 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | IN President | R+10.0 | R+19.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | National President | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | IN Senate | D+3.0 | R+9.7 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | IN Governor | D+4.0 | R+6.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-30 | UT President | R+6.0 | R+18.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | PA President | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-27 | PA Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | NV President | Even | D+2.4 | 2.4 | — |
| 2016-10-25 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | FL President | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | National President | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | FL Senate | Even | R+7.7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2016-10-25 | NV Senate | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+5.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | IN President | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | IN Senate | D+2.0 | R+9.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | IN Governor | D+4.0 | R+6.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | National President | Even | D+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2016-10-12 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | CO President | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | FL Senate | R+8.0 | R+7.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | CO Senate | D+10.0 | D+5.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | WI President | D+8.0 | R+0.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-04 | OR President | D+8.0 | D+11.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | FL President | D+2.0 | R+1.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-04 | FL Senate | R+4.0 | R+7.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | WI Senate | D+12.0 | R+3.4 | 15.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-04 | OR Senate | D+19.0 | D+23.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-03 | CO President | Even | D+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2016-10-03 | National President | Even | D+2.2 | 2.2 | — |
| 2016-10-03 | CO Senate | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | PA President | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | MN President | Even | D+1.5 | 1.5 | — |
| 2016-09-23 | PA Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | NC Senate | D+9.0 | R+5.7 | 14.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | OH President | R+1.0 | R+8.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | CO President | R+4.0 | D+4.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | CO Senate | R+2.0 | D+5.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-22 | OH Senate | R+8.0 | R+20.9 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-20 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-12 | MO Governor | D+8.0 | R+5.6 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 2015-05-28 | MS-1 House | R+17.0 | R+40.0 | 23.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-13 | LA Senate | R+21.0 | R+11.9 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | MT-1 House | R+12.0 | R+15.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | FL Governor | D+2.0 | R+1.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | MT Senate | R+14.0 | R+17.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | IA Senate | R+6.0 | R+8.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | KS Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-20 | KS Senate | R+2.0 | D+10.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-16 | CO Governor | R+4.0 | D+3.3 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-16 | CO Senate | R+5.0 | R+1.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | NC Senate | R+5.0 | R+1.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | FL Governor | R+2.0 | R+1.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | KY Senate | R+3.0 | R+15.5 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | MD Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-03 | WI Governor | R+4.0 | R+5.7 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-30 | KS Governor | D+8.0 | R+3.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-30 | KS Senate | R+7.0 | D+10.6 | 17.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-29 | MT-1 House | R+10.0 | R+15.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | NM Governor | R+4.0 | R+14.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | IA Governor | R+8.0 | R+21.7 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | IA Senate | R+9.0 | R+8.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | MT Senate | R+13.0 | R+17.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | NM Senate | D+17.0 | D+11.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-24 | NY-18 House | D+6.0 | D+5.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-22 | WI Governor | D+5.0 | R+5.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-22 | NC Senate | D+4.0 | R+1.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-16 | CO Governor | R+5.0 | D+3.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-16 | CO Senate | R+7.0 | R+1.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | KY Senate | R+10.0 | R+15.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | AR Governor | R+4.0 | R+13.9 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | AR Senate | R+4.0 | R+17.1 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | KY Senate | R+4.0 | R+15.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.