Public Opinion Strategies partisan·R
44 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 5.0 pts | D+5.0 | 33% |
| 2020 | 5 | 4.5 pts | D+2.2 | 80% |
| 2018 | 7 | 5.0 pts | R+4.6 | 71% |
| 2016 | 14 | 7.6 pts | D+4.1 | 69% |
| 2014 | 15 | 4.9 pts | D+1.0 | 73% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | PA-1 House | 400 RV | Bob Harvie 40.00% – Brian Fitzpatrick 49.00% | R+9.0 |
| 2026-09-14 | PA-1 House | 400 RV | Bob Harvie 40.00% – Brian Fitzpatrick 49.00% | R+9.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | R+2.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-09 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-05 | CT-5 House | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | NY-24 House | R+8.0 | R+2.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | CA-39 House | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | National President | D+14.0 | D+4.4 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-05 | IL-17 House | D+6.0 | D+4.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-04 | TX-23 House | D+1.0 | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-16 | CA-45 House | R+4.0 | D+4.1 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-08 | WV Senate | D+1.0 | D+3.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | KY-6 House | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | FL-16 House | R+10.0 | R+9.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | PA-1 House | R+8.0 | R+2.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | CA-49 House | D+2.0 | D+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | MI-8 House | R+2.0 | D+3.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-02 | IN-9 House | R+2.0 | R+13.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | IN President | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | IN Senate | R+5.0 | R+9.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | IN Governor | Even | R+6.0 | 6.0 | — |
| 2016-10-17 | WI-8 House | R+11.0 | R+25.4 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | MI-8 House | R+18.0 | R+16.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | NV President | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | NV Senate | R+3.0 | D+2.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-05 | CA-49 House | R+9.0 | R+0.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | IN President | R+5.0 | R+19.2 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-04 | IN Senate | D+1.0 | R+9.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-04 | IN Governor | D+2.0 | R+6.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-02 | CA-7 House | R+5.0 | D+2.3 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-11 | MI-8 House | R+19.0 | R+16.9 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | KY Senate | R+7.0 | R+15.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | NC Senate | Even | R+1.6 | 1.6 | — |
| 2014-10-24 | NY-18 House | Even | D+5.2 | 5.2 | — |
| 2014-10-19 | SD Senate | R+24.0 | R+20.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-14 | NY-19 House | R+26.0 | R+19.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-12 | NY-18 House | D+4.0 | D+5.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | NM Governor | R+19.0 | R+14.5 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | MN Senate | D+7.0 | D+10.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-24 | NY-1 House | Even | R+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
| 2014-09-22 | NY-24 House | D+3.0 | R+10.5 | 13.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-17 | KY-6 House | R+19.0 | R+20.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | IL-13 House | R+19.0 | R+17.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | GA-12 House | D+2.0 | R+9.5 | 11.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-10 | RI Governor | Even | D+4.5 | 4.5 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.