Mitchell Research
4 scored general-election polls (2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 50% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | MI Governor | Jocelyn Benson 48.00% – Mike Cox 41.00% | D+7.0 |
| 2026-06-13 | MI Senate | El-Sayed 47.00% – Rogers 42.00% | D+5.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-29 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-14 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.