Mitchell Research
51 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | 1.9 pts | D+1.9 | 50% |
| 2022 | 5 | 6.2 pts | R+3.1 | 80% |
| 2020 | 6 | 5.9 pts | D+5.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 10 | 2.7 pts | D+0.2 | 100% |
| 2016 | 11 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 0% |
| 2014 | 15 | 2.7 pts | R+0.7 | 100% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | MI Governor | 672 LV | Jocelyn Benson 46.00% – John James 44.00% | D+2.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-29 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-14 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-12-04 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-03 | MI Governor | D+2.0 | D+10.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-02 | MI-7 House | R+0.9 | D+5.4 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-19 | MI Governor | D+2.0 | D+10.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | MI-7 House | D+11.0 | D+5.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MI Senate | D+5.4 | D+1.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-29 | MI President | D+7.1 | D+2.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | MI Senate | D+9.6 | D+1.7 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | MI President | D+10.4 | D+2.8 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | MI President | D+10.0 | D+2.8 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-05 | MI Governor | D+7.8 | D+9.6 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-05 | MI Senate | D+3.0 | D+6.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | MI Governor | D+14.0 | D+9.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-04 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | MI Governor | D+5.0 | D+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-25 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | MI Governor | D+7.5 | D+9.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-04 | MI Senate | D+8.8 | D+6.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | MI Governor | D+10.0 | D+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+6.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-06 | MI President | D+6.0 | R+0.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-03 | MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-02 | MI President | D+3.0 | R+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | MI President | D+3.0 | R+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | MI President | D+7.0 | R+0.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-30 | MI President | D+6.0 | R+0.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-25 | MI President | D+6.0 | R+0.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | MI President | D+8.0 | R+0.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-18 | MI President | D+13.0 | R+0.2 | 13.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-11 | MI President | D+10.0 | R+0.2 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-27 | MI President | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-02 | MI Governor | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2014-11-02 | MI Senate | D+12.0 | D+13.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | MI Governor | R+4.9 | R+4.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | MI Senate | D+14.1 | D+13.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | MI Governor | R+2.3 | R+4.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | MI Senate | D+13.6 | D+13.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | MI-11 House | R+12.0 | R+15.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-12 | MI Governor | R+3.0 | R+4.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-12 | MI Senate | D+11.0 | D+13.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | MI Governor | R+1.0 | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+13.3 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | MI Governor | R+4.0 | R+4.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+13.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | MI Governor | R+5.0 | R+4.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | MI Senate | D+2.0 | D+13.3 | 11.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.