Lake Research Partners partisan·D
15 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 30.5 pts | D+30.5 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 6.4 pts | D+5.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 5 | 5.6 pts | D+5.6 | 75% |
| 2016 | 2 | 9.7 pts | D+9.7 | 100% |
| 2014 | 4 | 7.5 pts | D+3.3 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-08 | SD Senate | R+13.0 | R+43.5 | 30.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-02 | National President | D+3.0 | D+4.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | CA-4 House | R+4.0 | R+11.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | CA-1 House | R+4.0 | R+14.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | AK-1 House | R+4.0 | R+6.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | MI-2 House | R+6.0 | R+12.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | WA-3 House | D+2.0 | R+5.3 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | AZ-8 House | R+4.0 | R+10.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-04-15 | AZ-8 House | Even | R+4.7 | 4.7 | — |
| 2016-10-12 | AK President | R+1.0 | R+14.7 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | IA-1 House | R+2.0 | R+7.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | CA-17 House | D+15.0 | D+3.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-28 | MI Governor | R+1.0 | R+4.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-28 | MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+13.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | KY-6 House | R+9.0 | R+20.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.