MassINC Polling Group
29 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 0.9 pts | D+0.9 | 100% |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.3 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 6.0 pts | R+5.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 11 | 2.7 pts | D+0.3 | 70% |
| 2014 | 11 | 4.7 pts | D+3.6 | 55% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | MA Governor | D+30.0 | D+29.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MA Senate | D+31.0 | D+33.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MA President | D+34.0 | D+33.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | MA Governor | R+43.0 | R+33.5 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | MA Senate | D+22.0 | D+24.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | MA Governor | R+44.0 | R+33.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | MA Senate | D+26.0 | D+24.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH President | R+1.0 | D+0.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH Senate | R+6.0 | D+0.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | NH Governor | R+5.0 | R+2.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | MA President | D+26.0 | D+27.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | NH President | D+3.0 | D+0.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | NH Senate | Even | D+0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2016-10-11 | NH Governor | D+3.0 | R+2.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | NH President | D+7.0 | D+0.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | NH Senate | D+2.0 | D+0.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | NH Governor | R+3.0 | R+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | MA President | D+26.0 | D+27.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | MA Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | MA Senate | D+25.0 | D+23.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-17 | MA Governor | R+1.0 | R+1.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-10 | MA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-03 | MA Governor | D+2.0 | R+1.9 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-03 | MA Senate | D+26.0 | D+23.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-26 | MA Governor | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-23 | MA-6 House | D+8.0 | D+13.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | MA Governor | D+10.0 | R+1.9 | 11.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-18 | MA Senate | D+28.0 | D+23.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | MA Governor | D+9.0 | R+1.9 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.