Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
51 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 6.5 pts | D+6.1 | 100% |
| 2020 | 6 | 7.5 pts | D+7.1 | 83% |
| 2019 | 3 | 1.0 pts | D+0.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 14 | 3.2 pts | R+1.3 | 69% |
| 2017 | 1 | 7.9 pts | R+7.9 | 100% |
| 2016 | 14 | 6.2 pts | D+5.9 | 86% |
| 2015 | 2 | 7.4 pts | D+3.3 | 50% |
| 2014 | 8 | 6.4 pts | D+5.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-27 | FL Governor | R+11.0 | R+19.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | FL Senate | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-13 | MN Governor | D+7.0 | D+7.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | SD President | R+11.0 | R+26.2 | 15.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | KY Senate | R+9.0 | R+19.5 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | KY President | R+17.0 | R+25.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-22 | MN Senate | D+8.0 | D+5.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | MN President | D+6.0 | D+7.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-06 | LA Governor | D+2.0 | D+2.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-18 | MS Governor | R+3.0 | R+5.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-12 | KY Governor | Even | D+0.4 | 0.4 | — |
| 2018-10-30 | SD Governor | R+3.0 | R+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | SD-1 House | R+23.0 | R+24.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | SD Governor | Even | R+3.4 | 3.4 | — |
| 2018-10-16 | MN Governor | D+6.0 | D+11.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | MN Senate | D+6.0 | D+10.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-16 | MN Senate | D+23.0 | D+24.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-06 | FL-26 House | R+1.0 | D+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-03 | FL-27 House | R+2.0 | D+6.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-26 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-26 | FL Senate | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-25 | MD Governor | R+15.0 | R+11.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | MN Governor | D+9.0 | D+11.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | MN Senate | D+7.0 | D+10.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-11 | MN Senate | D+30.0 | D+24.1 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-12 | VA Governor | D+1.0 | D+8.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | MO President | R+5.0 | R+18.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | MO Senate | R+1.0 | R+2.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-25 | MO Governor | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-21 | MN President | D+8.0 | D+1.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | SD-1 House | R+24.0 | R+28.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | SD President | R+7.0 | R+29.8 | 22.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | SD Senate | R+38.0 | R+43.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | LA President | R+20.0 | R+19.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | MT-1 House | R+13.0 | R+15.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | MT President | R+10.0 | R+20.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | MT Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+1.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | FL Senate | R+7.0 | R+7.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | MN President | D+6.0 | D+1.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-23 | MS Governor | R+38.0 | R+33.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-07 | KY Governor | D+2.0 | R+8.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-22 | SD-1 House | R+21.0 | R+33.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | SD Governor | R+36.0 | R+45.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | SD Senate | R+9.0 | R+20.9 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | MN Governor | D+5.0 | D+5.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | MN Senate | D+9.0 | D+10.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-07 | WY Governor | R+25.0 | R+32.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-09 | MN Governor | D+12.0 | D+5.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-09 | MN Senate | D+13.0 | D+10.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.