American Research Group
28 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 2.2 pts | D+2.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 7 | 12.5 pts | D+10.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 3 | 9.7 pts | D+9.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 8 | 2.6 pts | Even | 71% |
| 2014 | 8 | 4.9 pts | D+2.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-17 | NH Governor | R+15.0 | R+15.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | NH Senate | D+13.0 | D+9.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NH Governor | R+5.0 | R+31.8 | 26.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NH Senate | D+17.0 | D+15.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | NH President | D+19.0 | D+7.4 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-08 | AR Senate | D+11.0 | D+33.1 | 22.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | NH Governor | R+8.0 | R+31.8 | 23.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | NH Senate | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | NH President | D+9.0 | D+7.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | NH-2 House | D+27.0 | D+13.4 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | NH-1 House | D+22.0 | D+8.6 | 13.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | NH Governor | R+5.0 | R+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH President | R+5.0 | D+0.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH Senate | R+3.0 | D+0.1 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | NH Governor | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | National President | D+7.0 | D+2.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | NH President | D+4.0 | D+0.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | NH Senate | Even | D+0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2016-09-22 | NH Governor | R+1.0 | R+2.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | NH Governor | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | NH Senate | Even | D+3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| 2014-10-21 | NH Governor | D+10.0 | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | NH Senate | D+1.0 | D+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-28 | NH Governor | D+15.0 | D+5.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-28 | NH Senate | D+10.0 | D+3.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | NH Governor | D+12.0 | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | NH Senate | D+5.0 | D+3.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.