Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
108 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | 2.5 pts | R+0.2 | 76% |
| 2021 | 3 | 6.3 pts | D+2.3 | 33% |
| 2020 | 11 | 6.0 pts | D+6.0 | 91% |
| 2018 | 26 | 4.5 pts | D+3.4 | 87% |
| 2017 | 7 | 3.2 pts | R+0.8 | 100% |
| 2016 | 19 | 2.9 pts | D+0.7 | 68% |
| 2014 | 24 | 6.4 pts | D+4.6 | 68% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-28 | WI Governor | R+1.0 | D+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-28 | PA Governor | D+16.0 | D+14.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | GA Governor | R+6.0 | R+7.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | AZ Governor | R+1.0 | D+0.7 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-28 | WI Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | D+4.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | D+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-28 | AZ Senate | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-24 | WI Governor | Even | D+3.4 | 3.4 | — |
| 2022-09-24 | PA Governor | D+11.0 | D+14.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | GA Governor | R+7.0 | R+7.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | AZ Governor | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | WI Senate | R+4.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | PA Senate | D+4.0 | D+4.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | GA Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | AZ Senate | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2021-10-26 | VA Governor | R+8.0 | R+1.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-12 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-28 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | R+1.9 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-28 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MI Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | WI President | D+5.0 | D+0.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | OH President | R+3.0 | R+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | MI President | D+12.0 | D+2.8 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-05 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | PA President | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | OH President | D+5.0 | R+8.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-22 | NV President | D+11.0 | D+2.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | National President | D+5.0 | D+4.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | ND-1 House | R+22.0 | R+24.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | TN Governor | R+17.0 | R+21.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | TN Senate | R+9.0 | R+10.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | ND Senate | R+9.0 | R+10.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | MO Senate | Even | R+5.8 | 5.8 | — |
| 2018-10-29 | IN Senate | D+7.0 | R+5.9 | 12.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-28 | AZ Governor | R+18.0 | R+14.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | AZ Senate | Even | D+2.3 | 2.3 | — |
| 2018-10-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | ND-1 House | R+17.0 | R+24.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | TN Governor | R+17.0 | R+21.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | AZ Governor | R+18.0 | R+14.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | TN Senate | R+5.0 | R+10.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | ND Senate | R+12.0 | R+10.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | MO Senate | Even | R+5.8 | 5.8 | — |
| 2018-10-01 | IN Senate | D+2.0 | R+5.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-01 | AZ Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | ND-1 House | R+14.0 | R+24.6 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | TN Governor | R+20.0 | R+21.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | AZ Governor | R+11.0 | R+14.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | TN Senate | R+3.0 | R+10.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | ND Senate | R+4.0 | R+10.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | MO Senate | D+3.0 | R+5.8 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-10 | IN Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | AZ Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2017-12-09 | AL Senate | D+10.0 | D+1.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-04 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | D+8.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-16 | VA Governor | D+7.0 | D+8.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-15 | NJ Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-15 | AL Senate | Even | D+1.6 | 1.6 | — |
| 2017-09-18 | NJ Governor | D+13.0 | D+14.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-17 | VA Governor | D+4.0 | D+8.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National Generic Ballot | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-24 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-11 | National President | D+7.0 | D+2.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-05 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | OH President | R+5.0 | R+8.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NV President | R+3.0 | D+2.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-19 | NC President | R+5.0 | R+3.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | OH Senate | R+14.0 | R+20.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NV Senate | R+7.0 | D+2.4 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-19 | NC Senate | R+6.0 | R+5.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NC Governor | R+3.0 | D+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-13 | National President | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | OH Governor | R+15.0 | R+30.6 | 15.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | KS Governor | D+6.0 | R+3.7 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-29 | IA Governor | R+17.0 | R+21.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-29 | KS Senate | R+1.0 | D+10.6 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-29 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.6 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-13 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.0 | R+5.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | CO Governor | Even | D+3.3 | 3.3 | — |
| 2014-10-06 | AR Governor | R+9.0 | R+13.9 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | KS Governor | R+6.0 | R+3.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | AK Governor | R+5.0 | D+2.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | AR Senate | R+7.0 | R+17.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | CO Senate | R+6.0 | R+1.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | KS Senate | D+5.0 | D+10.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | KY Senate | R+4.0 | R+15.5 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | AK Senate | R+4.0 | R+2.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | National Generic Ballot | R+7.0 | R+5.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | KS Governor | D+4.0 | R+3.7 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-15 | IA Governor | R+13.0 | R+21.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | IA Senate | Even | R+8.3 | 8.3 | — |
| 2014-09-15 | KS Senate | D+2.0 | D+10.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | NC Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-08 | National Generic Ballot | R+7.0 | R+5.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.