We Ask America
20 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 1.1 pts | R+1.1 | 100% |
| 2019 | 1 | 2.7 pts | R+2.7 | — |
| 2016 | 1 | 1.5 pts | D+1.5 | 100% |
| 2014 | 17 | 4.8 pts | D+2.9 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-19 | MI-3 House | R+7.0 | R+5.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-15 | LA Governor | Even | D+2.7 | 2.7 | — |
| 2016-09-12 | IL President | D+18.5 | D+17.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | IL Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-21 | IL-17 House | D+16.0 | D+10.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | IL-13 House | R+17.0 | R+17.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | IL-12 House | R+2.0 | R+10.6 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | IL-11 House | D+12.0 | D+6.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | IL-10 House | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | IL Governor | D+3.0 | R+3.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | IL Governor | D+4.0 | R+3.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-06 | IL Senate | D+13.0 | D+10.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | IL-13 House | R+13.0 | R+17.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | IL-12 House | R+5.0 | R+10.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-30 | IL-11 House | D+3.0 | D+6.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-30 | IL-10 House | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-29 | IL-17 House | D+9.0 | D+10.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | IL Governor | R+3.0 | R+3.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | MI Governor | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2014-09-18 | MI Senate | D+3.0 | D+13.3 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.