APC Research
4 scored general-election polls (2014) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4 | 8.0 pts | D+8.0 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-18 | IL Governor | R+2.0 | R+3.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | IL Senate | D+14.0 | D+10.9 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-07 | IL Governor | D+11.0 | R+3.9 | 14.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-07 | IL Senate | D+23.0 | D+10.9 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.