Research & Polling Inc.
23 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 2.5 pts | R+0.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 5 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| 2018 | 8 | 6.9 pts | R+6.9 | 75% |
| 2016 | 2 | 3.7 pts | R+3.7 | 100% |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.5 pts | R+1.6 | 100% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | NM Senate | 1125 LV | Ben Ray Luján 53.00% – Larry Marker 37.00% | D+16.0 |
| 2026-10-09 | NM Governor | 1125 LV | Deb Haaland 49.00% – Gregg Hull 42.00% | D+7.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-24 | NM-3 House | D+18.0 | D+16.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | NM-2 House | D+2.0 | D+0.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | NM-1 House | D+6.0 | D+11.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-24 | NM Governor | D+8.0 | D+6.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NM-3 House | D+23.0 | D+17.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NM-2 House | R+2.0 | R+7.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NM-1 House | D+21.0 | D+16.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NM Senate | D+8.0 | D+6.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NM President | D+12.0 | D+10.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM-2 House | R+1.0 | D+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM-1 House | D+12.0 | D+22.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM Governor | D+10.0 | D+14.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | NM Senate | D+20.0 | D+23.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | NM-2 House | R+7.0 | D+1.9 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-10 | NM-1 House | D+8.0 | D+22.8 | 14.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | NM Governor | D+7.0 | D+14.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-10 | NM Senate | D+21.0 | D+23.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | NM President | D+5.0 | D+8.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | NM President | D+4.0 | D+8.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | NM Governor | R+15.0 | R+14.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | NM Senate | D+7.0 | D+11.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | NM Governor | R+18.0 | R+14.5 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | NM Senate | D+13.0 | D+11.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. A date links to the original release when that URL is stored. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.