Primary
Democratic Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján ✓ | 181,979 | 79.3% | |
| Matt Dodson | 47,420 | 20.7% |
Republican Primary
Held June 2, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Marker ✓ | 31,160 | 100.0% |
Full calendar and every race: New Mexico primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
Ben Ray Luján Nominee Incumbent
DemocratGeneral Election Polling Average
Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2026-10-09 | 1125 LV | ±2.90 | Ben Ray Luján 53.00% | Larry Marker 37.00% |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-30 | 567 LV | ±5.10 | Ben Ray Luján 54.00% | Larry Marker 36.00% |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2026-08-28 | 516 LV | ±4.30 | Ben Ray Luján 53.00% | Larry Marker 38.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
Ben Ray Luján leads Larry E Marker 53.3% to 37% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+16.3 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.
Is the 2026 New Mexico Senate race competitive?
No — the PollingSource polling average rates it Safe D for Democrats.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 New Mexico Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Research & Polling Inc. (completed October 9, 2026), found Ben Ray Luján (D) at 53% and Larry Marker (R) at 37%.
When is the 2026 New Mexico Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
First-term Class II incumbent (Heinrich re-elected 2024, up 2030)
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $217,386
- GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION Dem-aligned $284
- SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Dem-aligned $10
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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