Hickman Analytics
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2019) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2 | 8.6 pts | D+8.6 | 0% |
| 2014 | 5 | 7.8 pts | D+5.7 | 60% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-15 | MS Governor | D+4.0 | R+5.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2019-09-24 | MS Governor | D+3.0 | R+5.1 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-30 | GA Governor | R+8.0 | R+7.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-30 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | R+7.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-29 | AK Governor | R+8.0 | D+2.2 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-29 | AK Senate | R+5.0 | R+2.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | AR Senate | D+3.0 | R+17.1 | 20.1 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.