McLaughlin & Associates partisan·R
22 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 4.1 pts | R+4.1 | 80% |
| 2020 | 1 | 1.0 pts | R+1.0 | 100% |
| 2018 | 8 | 11.0 pts | R+11.0 | 63% |
| 2016 | 5 | 7.8 pts | D+2.6 | 40% |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.7 pts | D+4.0 | 67% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-23 | CT Governor | D+6.0 | D+11.4 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-14 | National Generic Ballot | R+6.0 | R+2.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-11 | NY-17 House | R+6.0 | D+2.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-23 | NY Governor | D+5.8 | D+7.3 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-19 | National Generic Ballot | R+4.0 | R+2.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-25 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | D+8.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NJ-5 House | D+9.0 | D+13.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | GA-7 House | R+27.0 | R+0.2 | 26.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | FL-27 House | R+9.0 | D+6.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-07 | VA-10 House | R+1.0 | D+12.4 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-01 | MO Senate | R+8.0 | R+5.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-12 | FL-27 House | R+9.0 | D+6.0 | 15.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | NY President | D+11.0 | D+24.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | WI President | D+5.0 | R+0.8 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-19 | WI Senate | D+2.0 | R+3.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | FL-18 House | R+7.0 | R+10.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | FL-18 House | D+1.0 | R+10.5 | 11.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-13 | AZ Governor | R+1.0 | R+11.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-10 | FL-26 House | R+4.0 | R+2.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.