Vox Populi Polling
35 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | 5.0 pts | D+2.9 | 79% |
| 2015 | 1 | 8.7 pts | D+8.7 | — |
| 2014 | 13 | 3.9 pts | R+1.2 | 77% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-29 | FL Governor | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-29 | AZ Governor | R+8.0 | R+14.2 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | FL Senate | Even | R+0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2018-10-29 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | TN Governor | R+12.0 | R+21.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | TN Senate | R+6.0 | R+10.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-28 | NJ Senate | D+8.0 | D+11.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NV Governor | D+4.0 | D+4.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | WV Senate | D+6.0 | D+3.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | IN Senate | D+10.0 | R+5.9 | 15.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-30 | AZ Governor | R+14.0 | R+14.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | NJ Senate | D+4.0 | D+11.2 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | MO Senate | R+2.0 | R+5.8 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-30 | AZ Senate | R+3.0 | D+2.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-17 | TX Governor | R+10.0 | R+13.3 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | TN Governor | R+9.0 | R+21.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | CA Governor | D+20.0 | D+23.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-17 | TX Senate | Even | R+2.6 | 2.6 | — |
| 2018-09-17 | TN Senate | D+2.0 | R+10.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-17 | CA Senate | D+10.0 | D+8.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-26 | KY Governor | Even | R+8.7 | 8.7 | — |
| 2014-11-16 | LA Senate | R+11.0 | R+11.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | GA Governor | R+7.0 | R+7.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | GA Senate | R+5.0 | R+7.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | NH Governor | R+3.0 | D+5.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-27 | VA Senate | D+4.0 | D+0.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | NH Senate | R+4.0 | D+3.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-26 | CO Governor | D+5.0 | D+3.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | CO Senate | R+3.0 | R+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | NC Senate | R+5.0 | R+1.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | NM Senate | D+6.0 | D+11.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | LA Senate | R+4.0 | R+11.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | NH Governor | D+4.0 | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-15 | NH Senate | R+4.0 | D+3.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.