Harper Polling partisan·R
19 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6 | 3.9 pts | D+3.9 | 50% |
| 2018 | 1 | 5.7 pts | R+5.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 5 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 50% |
| 2014 | 7 | 4.9 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-24 | NC Governor | D+10.0 | D+4.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | NC Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-24 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | NC Governor | D+7.0 | D+4.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | NC Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-19 | NC President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MI-11 House | D+1.0 | D+6.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | PA President | Even | R+0.7 | 0.7 | — |
| 2016-11-02 | PA Senate | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2016-10-08 | MI-1 House | R+5.0 | R+14.8 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | PA President | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-21 | PA Senate | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2014-10-29 | NC Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | NY-21 House | R+14.0 | R+14.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | PA Governor | D+10.0 | D+9.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-10 | SD Senate | R+4.0 | R+20.9 | 16.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-07 | WV-3 House | R+6.0 | R+10.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | NY-21 House | R+8.0 | R+14.6 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-21 | NY-1 House | Even | R+4.9 | 4.9 | — |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.