Normington, Petts & Associates partisan·D
20 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | 9.4 pts | D+9.4 | 50% |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.1 pts | R+1.1 | 100% |
| 2016 | 10 | 7.4 pts | D+6.1 | 78% |
| 2014 | 5 | 6.3 pts | D+4.0 | 40% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-13 | MN-2 House | D+18.0 | D+2.3 | 15.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-22 | CA-25 House | D+6.0 | R+0.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-12 | MO-2 House | Even | R+6.4 | 6.4 | — |
| 2018-09-20 | CO-6 House | D+11.0 | D+11.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | VA-7 House | Even | D+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| 2016-10-12 | IN-9 House | R+2.0 | R+13.7 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | IA-1 House | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-02 | M2 President | D+4.0 | R+10.3 | 14.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-02 | ME-2 House | D+1.0 | R+9.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-28 | IL-10 House | D+5.0 | D+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | IL President | D+17.0 | D+17.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | IL Senate | D+9.0 | D+15.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | M2 President | R+4.0 | R+10.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | ME-2 House | Even | R+9.6 | 9.6 | — |
| 2016-09-20 | NH-1 House | D+10.0 | D+1.3 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-15 | ME-2 House | D+8.0 | R+5.2 | 13.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-07 | ME Governor | D+2.0 | R+4.8 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-05 | MA-6 House | D+12.0 | D+13.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | NH-2 House | D+6.0 | D+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-05 | NH-1 House | D+2.0 | R+3.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.