Primary
Democratic Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katy Padilla Stout ✓ | 30,667 | 52.0% | |
| Santos Limon | 16,042 | 27.2% | |
| Bruce Richardson | 6,939 | 11.8% | |
| Gretel Enck | 5,302 | 9.0% |
Republican Primary
Held March 3, 2026.
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Herrera ✓ | 23,857 | 43.3% | |
| Tony Gonzales ✓ | 22,979 | 41.7% | |
| Keith Barton | 4,672 | 8.5% | |
| Quico Canseco | 3,562 | 6.4% | |
| Francisco Canseco | 3,554 | 6.5% |
Full calendar and every race: Texas primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.
PollingSource average — the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days). This is an average, not a forecast.
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Candidates
General Election Polling Average
No scientific polls in the last 30 days — the figure is the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer when fewer exist, not a 30-day mean. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) partisan·D 2024 err 2.0 | 2026-03-11 | 521 V | Katy Padilla Stout 40.00% | Brandon Herrera 42.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 TX-23 House race?
Brandon Herrera leads Katy Padilla Stout 42% to 40% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+2.0 margin based on the last three qualifying polls of the locked matchup, or fewer (no polls in the last 30 days).
Is the 2026 TX-23 House race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the expert consensus rates it Likely R, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 TX-23 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from Public Policy Polling (D) (completed March 11, 2026), found Katy Padilla Stout (D) at 40% and Brandon Herrera (R) at 42%.
When is the 2026 TX-23 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average on this page is the last three qualifying scientific public polls of the locked matchup, or fewer — the newest of them is older than 30 days, so this is not a 30-day mean and it does not set the rating. We do not exclude pollsters. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Independent Expenditures Updated just now
Top Spenders
- FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND GOP-aligned $846,916
- NO GOING BACK PAC INC. GOP-aligned $493,939
- READY FOR THE FIGHT Dem-aligned $453,571
- AB PAC Dem-aligned $299,358
- AMERICA PAC GOP-aligned $206,349
- SOMOS PAC Dem-aligned $203,918
- HISPANIC LEADERSHIP TRUST Dem-aligned $75,200
- HISPANIC LEADERSHIP ACTION Dem-aligned $72,919
- TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE Dem-aligned $39,000
- MAGA INC. GOP-aligned $25,485
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →
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