EPIC-MRA
27 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1 | 0.4 pts | D+0.4 | 100% |
| 2022 | 4 | 1.7 pts | D+1.7 | 100% |
| 2020 | 8 | 4.5 pts | D+4.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 4 | 5.8 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 4 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 0% |
| 2014 | 6 | 2.7 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-30 | MI Governor | D+11.0 | D+10.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-09 | MI Governor | D+11.0 | D+10.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-17 | MI Governor | D+16.0 | D+10.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-10 | MI Governor | D+11.0 | D+10.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+1.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | MI President | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | MI President | D+9.0 | D+2.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | MI President | D+9.0 | D+2.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | MI Senate | D+4.0 | D+1.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | MI Governor | D+5.0 | D+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+6.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | MI Governor | D+8.0 | D+9.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-23 | MI Senate | D+23.0 | D+6.5 | 16.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | MI President | D+4.0 | R+0.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | MI President | D+7.0 | R+0.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-02 | MI President | D+11.0 | R+0.2 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-12 | MI President | D+3.0 | R+0.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-27 | MI Governor | R+2.0 | R+4.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | MI Senate | D+15.0 | D+13.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | MI Governor | R+8.0 | R+4.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | MI Senate | D+11.0 | D+13.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | MI Governor | R+6.0 | R+4.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-27 | MI Senate | D+9.0 | D+13.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.