Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy
4 scored general-election polls (2014) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4 | 16.4 pts | D+16.4 | 75% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-10-19 | UT-4 House | D+4.0 | R+5.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-19 | UT-3 House | R+34.1 | R+49.7 | 15.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | UT-2 House | R+6.0 | R+28.3 | 22.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | UT-1 House | R+18.0 | R+36.8 | 18.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.