MRG Research
10 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 3.5 pts | D+3.5 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 8.0 pts | R+8.0 | 100% |
| 2014 | 8 | 8.1 pts | R+8.1 | 86% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-04 | HI President | D+33.0 | D+29.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-10 | HI Governor | D+21.0 | D+29.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | HI-2 House | D+50.0 | D+60.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | HI-1 House | Even | D+3.9 | 3.9 | — |
| 2014-10-18 | HI Governor | D+6.0 | D+12.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | HI Senate | D+26.0 | D+42.1 | 16.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | HI-2 House | D+53.0 | D+60.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | HI-1 House | R+4.0 | D+3.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-13 | HI Governor | D+4.0 | D+12.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-13 | HI Senate | D+37.0 | D+42.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.