The Polling Company Inc.
17 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 4.2 pts | R+2.8 | 80% |
| 2017 | 3 | 9.3 pts | R+9.3 | 50% |
| 2016 | 2 | 5.8 pts | R+5.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 7 | 4.8 pts | D+1.4 | 86% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-12 | NY-22 House | R+8.0 | D+2.3 | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-12 | IA-1 House | D+2.0 | D+5.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | WV Senate | D+4.0 | D+3.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | MO Senate | R+3.0 | R+5.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | IA-1 House | D+1.0 | D+5.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-04 | VA Governor | D+1.0 | D+8.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-01 | VA Governor | R+2.0 | D+8.9 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2017-10-25 | VA Governor | Even | D+8.9 | 8.9 | — |
| 2016-10-30 | IA-1 House | R+11.0 | R+7.7 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-30 | IA-1 House | R+16.0 | R+7.7 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | AZ Governor | R+7.0 | R+11.8 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-17 | VA-10 House | R+16.0 | R+16.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-07 | AZ Governor | R+9.0 | R+11.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | IA-4 House | R+13.0 | R+23.3 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | IA-1 House | R+1.0 | R+2.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-16 | WA-4 House | R+2.0 | D+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-10 | OR Senate | D+8.0 | D+18.9 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.