Øptimus Analytics
25 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | 3.2 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.1 pts | R+3.1 | 100% |
| 2017 | 1 | 11.9 pts | R+11.9 | 0% |
| 2014 | 19 | 5.8 pts | D+1.0 | 63% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-01 | VA-7 House | D+10.2 | D+1.8 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | SC Senate | R+9.8 | R+10.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-11-01 | SC President | R+12.4 | R+11.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | OH-7 House | R+18.3 | R+17.5 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | AZ-1 House | D+2.4 | D+7.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-01 | VA Governor | R+3.0 | D+8.9 | 11.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-01 | FL Governor | R+1.5 | R+1.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-30 | IA Senate | R+2.9 | R+8.3 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-24 | MA-6 House | R+1.8 | D+13.8 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-23 | FL Governor | R+2.5 | R+1.1 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | IA Senate | R+3.1 | R+8.3 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | MA-6 House | D+1.3 | D+13.8 | 12.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | FL Governor | R+0.9 | R+1.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-16 | IA Senate | R+0.6 | R+8.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-09 | FL Governor | D+1.1 | R+1.1 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-09 | IA Senate | R+4.1 | R+8.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-08 | MA-6 House | R+2.1 | D+13.8 | 15.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-02 | FL Governor | D+1.1 | R+1.1 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-02 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-25 | FL Governor | D+1.0 | R+1.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-25 | IA Senate | D+0.8 | R+8.3 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-18 | FL Governor | R+0.1 | R+1.1 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | IA Senate | R+1.2 | R+8.3 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-11 | FL Governor | R+0.5 | R+1.1 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-11 | IA Senate | D+1.7 | R+8.3 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.