JMC Analytics
21 scored general-election polls (2014–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 100% |
| 2019 | 2 | 1.3 pts | R+0.9 | 100% |
| 2018 | 1 | 10.2 pts | R+10.2 | 100% |
| 2017 | 2 | 4.5 pts | R+2.1 | 50% |
| 2016 | 8 | 3.7 pts | D+2.7 | 100% |
| 2015 | 3 | 6.6 pts | D+1.1 | 100% |
| 2014 | 3 | 10.0 pts | D+7.2 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-28 | GA Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-28 | GA Senate | D+9.0 | D+2.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2019-11-12 | LA Governor | D+0.5 | D+2.7 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2019-10-25 | LA Governor | D+3.0 | D+2.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-06-15 | OH-12 House | R+11.0 | R+0.8 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2017-11-27 | AL Senate | R+5.0 | D+1.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-10 | AL Senate | D+4.0 | D+1.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | NV President | Even | D+2.4 | 2.4 | — |
| 2016-10-30 | NV Senate | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-13 | LA President | R+7.0 | R+19.6 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NV President | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | NV Senate | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | LA President | R+10.0 | R+19.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | GA President | R+6.0 | R+5.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | GA Senate | R+13.0 | R+13.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-19 | LA Governor | D+4.0 | D+12.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2015-11-15 | LA Governor | D+16.0 | D+12.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2015-10-30 | LA Governor | D+20.0 | D+12.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-20 | LA Senate | R+15.0 | R+11.9 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-17 | LA-6 House | R+26.0 | R+24.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | PA-10 House | R+12.0 | R+37.8 | 25.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.