Monmouth University Polling Institute
130 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | 2.0 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2021 | 4 | 6.6 pts | D+6.6 | 67% |
| 2020 | 28 | 6.3 pts | D+5.3 | 56% |
| 2018 | 20 | 5.3 pts | R+3.4 | 79% |
| 2017 | 6 | 3.8 pts | R+3.8 | 67% |
| 2016 | 52 | 6.6 pts | D+5.6 | 63% |
| 2014 | 18 | 3.9 pts | D+3.4 | 88% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-15 | National Generic Ballot | R+6.0 | R+2.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-23 | National Generic Ballot | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-23 | NJ Governor | D+11.0 | D+3.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2021-10-18 | VA Governor | Even | R+1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| 2021-09-24 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2021-09-18 | NJ Governor | D+13.0 | D+3.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | PA President | D+5.0 | D+1.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | FL President | D+4.0 | R+3.4 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-25 | GA President | D+2.0 | D+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA-4 House | R+3.0 | R+24.2 | 21.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA-3 House | D+14.0 | D+1.4 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA-2 House | D+13.0 | Even | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA-1 House | D+14.0 | R+2.6 | 16.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA Senate | D+6.0 | R+6.6 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-17 | IA President | D+5.0 | R+8.2 | 13.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-11 | AZ Senate | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-11 | AZ President | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC Governor | D+5.0 | D+4.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-10 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | PA President | D+8.0 | D+1.2 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | NJ-2 House | D+7.0 | R+5.8 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | National President | D+5.0 | D+4.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-20 | IA Senate | D+1.0 | R+6.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-20 | IA President | R+3.0 | R+8.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | GA Senate | R+8.0 | R+1.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | GA President | R+5.0 | D+0.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-13 | AZ Senate | D+1.0 | D+2.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-13 | AZ President | Even | D+0.3 | 0.3 | — |
| 2020-09-12 | FL President | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-05 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-05 | National President | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | NJ-7 House | Even | D+5.0 | 5.0 | — |
| 2018-10-26 | NY-19 House | D+2.0 | D+8.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | NJ-3 House | D+3.0 | D+1.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-19 | CA-48 House | R+6.0 | D+7.1 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-13 | NJ Senate | D+12.0 | D+11.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | WV-3 House | R+2.0 | R+12.8 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | PA-17 House | D+12.0 | D+12.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-05 | NJ-11 House | D+3.0 | D+14.6 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | PA-1 House | R+7.0 | R+2.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | VA-10 House | D+9.0 | D+12.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | CA-50 House | R+11.0 | R+3.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-19 | VA-7 House | D+3.0 | D+1.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | NJ-7 House | D+6.0 | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | CA-39 House | R+6.0 | D+3.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-08 | NY-19 House | D+6.0 | D+8.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | PA-7 House | D+4.0 | D+10.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-07-28 | OH-12 House | D+1.0 | R+0.8 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-06-09 | OH-12 House | R+15.0 | R+0.8 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-03-10 | PA-18 House | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-02-14 | PA-18 House | R+4.0 | D+0.3 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 2017-12-08 | AL Senate | R+0.3 | D+1.6 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2017-11-04 | VA Governor | D+2.0 | D+8.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-29 | NJ Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-10-14 | VA Governor | R+1.0 | D+8.9 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 2017-09-30 | NJ Governor | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2017-09-23 | VA Governor | D+5.0 | D+8.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-05 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | UT President | R+6.0 | R+18.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | UT Senate | R+33.0 | R+41.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | UT Governor | R+33.0 | R+38.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-31 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-30 | MO President | R+14.0 | R+18.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | MO Senate | R+1.0 | R+2.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-30 | MO Governor | Even | R+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2016-10-29 | IN President | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | IN Senate | Even | R+9.7 | 9.7 | — |
| 2016-10-29 | IN Governor | D+6.0 | R+6.0 | 12.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-24 | NH President | D+4.0 | D+0.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-24 | NH Senate | Even | D+0.1 | 0.1 | — |
| 2016-10-24 | NH Governor | D+5.0 | R+2.3 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-23 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+3.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-23 | AZ Senate | R+10.0 | R+13.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC Senate | R+6.0 | R+5.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-22 | NC Governor | R+1.0 | D+0.2 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-17 | WI President | D+7.0 | R+0.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-17 | WI Senate | D+8.0 | R+3.4 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | NV President | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | NV Senate | R+3.0 | D+2.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-15 | National President | D+12.0 | D+2.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | IN President | R+4.0 | R+19.2 | 15.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | IN Senate | D+6.0 | R+9.7 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-12 | IN Governor | D+12.0 | R+6.0 | 18.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-11 | UT President | R+6.0 | R+18.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | UT Senate | R+29.0 | R+41.1 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | UT Governor | R+33.0 | R+38.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | MO President | R+5.0 | R+18.6 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | MO Senate | R+2.0 | R+2.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | MO Governor | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-03 | OH President | D+2.0 | R+8.1 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-03 | OH Senate | R+15.0 | R+20.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-02 | PA President | D+10.0 | R+0.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-02 | PA Senate | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2016-10-01 | CO President | D+11.0 | D+4.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | CO Senate | D+18.0 | D+5.7 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-24 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NH President | D+9.0 | D+0.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-19 | NH Senate | R+2.0 | D+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-19 | NH Governor | R+6.0 | R+2.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-18 | FL President | D+5.0 | R+1.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-18 | FL Senate | R+2.0 | R+7.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | GA President | R+3.0 | R+5.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-17 | GA Senate | R+16.0 | R+13.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | IA President | R+8.0 | R+9.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | IA Senate | R+17.0 | R+24.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-12 | NV President | R+2.0 | D+2.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-12 | NV Senate | R+3.0 | D+2.4 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2014-11-01 | NJ Senate | D+14.0 | D+13.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | NJ-5 House | R+11.0 | R+12.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | GA Governor | R+6.0 | R+7.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | GA Senate | R+8.0 | R+7.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | SD-1 House | R+27.0 | R+33.1 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | SD Governor | R+39.0 | R+45.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | SD Senate | R+14.0 | R+20.9 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-25 | NC Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-20 | IA Governor | R+21.0 | R+21.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-20 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+8.3 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | CO Governor | D+7.0 | D+3.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-19 | CO Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | KS Governor | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-18 | KS Senate | Even | D+10.6 | 10.6 | — |
| 2014-10-13 | NJ-2 House | R+21.0 | R+24.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-12 | NJ-5 House | R+5.0 | R+12.1 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-11 | NJ-3 House | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-04 | NJ Senate | D+15.0 | D+13.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.