Keating Research partisan·D
9 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 0.5 pts | D+0.5 | 100% |
| 2022 | 1 | 1.8 pts | R+1.8 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.8 pts | D+3.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 3 | 6.9 pts | D+6.9 | 67% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | CO President | D+12.0 | D+11.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-14 | CO President | D+11.0 | D+11.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-30 | CO-3 House | R+2.0 | R+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | CO President | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | CO Senate | D+11.0 | D+5.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-28 | CO President | D+11.0 | D+4.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-22 | CO Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-11 | CO-6 House | R+1.0 | R+8.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-18 | AZ Governor | R+2.0 | R+11.8 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.