Siena College
68 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | 5.7 pts | D+4.4 | 77% |
| 2020 | 4 | 6.8 pts | D+6.8 | 33% |
| 2018 | 9 | 6.9 pts | R+6.9 | 67% |
| 2016 | 16 | 4.0 pts | R+2.7 | 100% |
| 2014 | 16 | 5.9 pts | D+2.9 | 88% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-31 | FL Governor | R+12.0 | R+19.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-31 | FL Senate | R+8.0 | R+16.4 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | NY-22 House | D+4.0 | D+6.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | NY-19 House | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-29 | WI Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-29 | WI Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-18 | TX Governor | R+9.0 | R+10.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | OH Governor | R+24.0 | R+25.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-16 | OH Senate | Even | R+6.1 | 6.1 | — |
| 2022-10-13 | NY Governor | D+11.0 | D+7.3 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-13 | NY Senate | D+20.0 | D+14.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-29 | NY-11 House | R+6.0 | R+19.2 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-27 | NY-22 House | R+5.0 | D+6.1 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-27 | NY-19 House | D+5.0 | R+1.9 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-22 | FL Governor | R+8.0 | R+19.4 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-22 | FL Senate | R+7.0 | R+16.4 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-20 | OH Governor | R+23.0 | R+25.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-20 | NY Governor | D+17.0 | D+7.3 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-20 | OH Senate | D+3.0 | R+6.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-20 | NY Senate | D+19.0 | D+14.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-16 | TX Governor | R+7.0 | R+10.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | WI Governor | D+5.0 | D+3.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-14 | WI Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-21 | NY-24 House | Even | R+2.4 | 2.4 | — |
| 2020-10-01 | NY-22 House | D+9.0 | R+1.4 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-28 | NY-24 House | D+2.0 | R+2.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-28 | NY President | D+32.0 | D+22.1 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | NY Governor | D+13.0 | D+24.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-30 | NY Senate | D+23.0 | D+33.4 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-20 | NY-24 House | R+14.0 | D+0.9 | 14.9 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-17 | NY-22 House | D+1.0 | D+2.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-14 | NY-19 House | R+1.0 | D+8.1 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-08 | NY-27 House | R+3.0 | D+4.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-06 | NY-25 House | D+17.0 | D+21.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | NY Governor | D+22.0 | D+24.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-24 | NY Senate | D+32.0 | D+33.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | NY President | D+17.0 | D+24.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | NY Senate | D+42.0 | D+42.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-02 | NY-19 House | R+6.0 | R+3.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | NY-22 House | R+4.0 | R+3.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-31 | NY-3 House | D+7.0 | D+11.7 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | NY-1 House | R+21.0 | R+9.8 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-18 | NY-24 House | R+23.0 | R+13.2 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | NY President | D+24.0 | D+24.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-15 | NY Senate | D+39.0 | D+42.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-02 | NY-3 House | D+16.0 | D+11.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | NY-1 House | R+15.0 | R+9.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-26 | NY-24 House | R+19.0 | R+13.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | NY-22 House | R+5.0 | R+3.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-21 | NY-19 House | R+1.0 | R+3.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | NY President | D+21.0 | D+24.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | NY Senate | D+46.0 | D+42.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-28 | NY-1 House | R+5.0 | R+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | NY-11 House | R+19.0 | R+6.2 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-26 | NY-18 House | D+5.0 | D+5.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | NY-24 House | R+10.0 | R+10.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | NY-19 House | R+23.0 | R+19.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-21 | NY-21 House | R+18.0 | R+14.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NY-4 House | D+10.0 | D+9.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-18 | NY Governor | D+21.0 | D+14.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-20 | NY Governor | D+29.0 | D+14.7 | 14.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | NY-24 House | D+8.0 | R+10.5 | 18.5 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-14 | NY-18 House | D+8.0 | D+5.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-12 | NY-4 House | D+18.0 | D+9.1 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-11 | NY-11 House | R+4.0 | R+6.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-09 | NY-1 House | D+10.0 | R+4.9 | 14.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | NY-21 House | R+13.0 | R+14.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-06 | NY-19 House | R+24.0 | R+19.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.