DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
27 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | 4.5 pts | R+3.5 | 50% |
| 2020 | 7 | 10.3 pts | D+10.3 | 29% |
| 2018 | 5 | 7.0 pts | D+7.0 | 60% |
| 2016 | 9 | 6.4 pts | D+5.8 | 78% |
| 2014 | 3 | 8.1 pts | D+4.3 | 33% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | PA-12 House | D+14.0 | D+12.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-23 | RI-2 House | Even | D+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2022-08-07 | NY-19 House | R+3.0 | D+5.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-21 | TX-3 House | D+2.0 | R+12.2 | 14.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-19 | WA-3 House | R+2.0 | R+13.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | CO-3 House | D+1.0 | R+6.2 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-08 | MI-3 House | D+5.0 | R+5.9 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-05 | NC-8 House | D+3.0 | R+6.6 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-02 | FL-15 House | R+3.0 | R+10.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-05-08 | CA-25 House | D+2.0 | R+9.7 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-09 | PA-16 House | R+3.0 | R+4.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | MI-6 House | R+3.0 | R+4.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-26 | IL-12 House | R+1.0 | R+6.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-16 | WV-3 House | D+4.0 | R+12.8 | 16.8 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-13 | NC-13 House | D+4.0 | R+6.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-20 | UT-4 House | R+8.0 | R+12.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-17 | AK-1 House | R+2.0 | R+14.3 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | NJ-5 House | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | FL-7 House | D+2.0 | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-03 | MI-8 House | R+6.0 | R+16.9 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-27 | NV-3 House | D+3.0 | D+1.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-24 | CA-49 House | R+2.0 | R+0.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-13 | NY-19 House | D+5.0 | R+3.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-12 | MN-3 House | D+2.0 | R+13.7 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-30 | FL-26 House | D+5.0 | R+2.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-27 | NJ-3 House | D+1.0 | R+9.6 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-13 | MA-6 House | D+8.0 | D+13.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.