Magellan Strategies
16 scored general-election polls (2014–2018) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3 | 4.8 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.7 pts | D+3.7 | 100% |
| 2014 | 10 | 4.3 pts | R+0.7 | 89% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-29 | CO Governor | D+5.0 | D+10.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-22 | OK Governor | R+7.0 | R+12.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-09 | CO Governor | D+7.0 | D+10.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | CO President | D+6.5 | D+4.9 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | CO President | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | CO Senate | D+15.0 | D+5.7 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-12 | LA Senate | R+16.0 | R+11.9 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-27 | PA Governor | D+7.0 | D+9.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-23 | ME Governor | Even | R+4.8 | 4.8 | — |
| 2014-10-13 | PA Governor | D+7.0 | D+9.9 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | IA Governor | R+16.0 | R+21.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-03 | IA Senate | R+9.2 | R+8.3 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-17 | PA Governor | D+9.0 | D+9.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-14 | MI Senate | D+5.0 | D+13.3 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-10 | NH Senate | R+1.6 | D+3.2 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-06 | KY Senate | R+8.0 | R+15.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.