Clarity Campaign Labs
26 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | 10.0 pts | D+10.0 | 33% |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.2 pts | D+3.2 | 100% |
| 2016 | 14 | 5.6 pts | D+5.2 | 50% |
| 2014 | 6 | 4.7 pts | D+4.6 | 80% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-29 | WI Senate | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-09 | WI Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-24 | FL Governor | R+1.0 | R+19.4 | 18.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-24 | FL Senate | Even | R+16.4 | 16.4 | — |
| 2018-10-15 | CA-4 House | R+4.0 | R+8.3 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-12 | OH-12 House | R+2.0 | R+4.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-03 | PA President | D+4.0 | R+0.7 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-03 | PA Senate | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | WI President | D+4.0 | R+0.8 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | MO President | R+16.0 | R+18.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-01 | WI Senate | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-11-01 | MO Senate | R+2.0 | R+2.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | MN-3 House | R+3.0 | R+13.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | IL-10 House | D+10.0 | D+5.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-12 | CA-10 House | D+1.0 | R+3.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-10 | M2 President | Even | R+10.3 | 10.3 | — |
| 2016-10-10 | MN-8 House | D+8.0 | D+0.6 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | ME-2 House | D+4.0 | R+9.6 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-10 | NV President | Even | D+2.4 | 2.4 | — |
| 2016-10-10 | NV Senate | D+3.0 | D+2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-11-01 | MI Governor | Even | R+4.1 | 4.1 | — |
| 2014-10-19 | MI Governor | D+3.0 | R+4.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-19 | MI Senate | D+15.0 | D+13.3 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | MI Governor | R+2.0 | R+4.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-13 | MI Senate | D+13.0 | D+13.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2014-09-24 | OK Governor | R+2.0 | R+14.8 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.