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Rasmussen Reports

277 scored general-election polls (2014–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.

Record by cycle

CyclePollsAvg. ErrorLeanWinner Called
2024 63 2.1 pts R+0.4 92%
2022 14 3.6 pts R+3.0 86%
2020 29 3.0 pts D+1.0 75%
2018 15 4.4 pts R+2.9 77%
2017 2 4.9 pts R+4.0 100%
2016 68 5.1 pts D+3.3 66%
2014 86 5.9 pts D+3.3 78%

Every scored poll

DateRacePoll MarginActualErrorCalled It
2024-11-01 MI President D+1.0 R+1.4 2.4 ✗
2024-11-01 MI President D+1.0 R+1.4 2.4 ✗
2024-10-29 AZ President R+2.0 R+5.5 3.5 ✓
2024-10-29 AZ President R+2.0 R+5.5 3.5 ✓
2024-10-29 WI President R+3.0 R+0.9 2.1 ✓
2024-10-29 WI President R+3.0 R+0.9 2.1 ✓
2024-10-29 National President R+3.0 R+1.5 1.5 ✓
2024-10-29 National President R+3.0 R+1.5 1.5 ✓
2024-10-28 NH President D+1.0 D+2.8 1.8 ✓
2024-10-28 NH President D+1.0 D+2.8 1.8 ✓
2024-10-28 NC President R+3.0 R+3.2 0.2 ✓
2024-10-28 NC President R+3.0 R+3.2 0.2 ✓
2024-10-28 NV President R+2.0 R+3.1 1.1 ✓
2024-10-28 NV President R+2.0 R+3.1 1.1 ✓
2024-10-28 GA President R+5.0 R+2.2 2.8 ✓
2024-10-28 GA President R+5.0 R+2.2 2.8 ✓
2024-10-28 PA President R+2.0 R+1.7 0.3 ✓
2024-10-28 PA President R+2.0 R+1.7 0.3 ✓
2024-10-26 NM President D+5.0 D+6.0 1.0 ✓
2024-10-26 NM President D+5.0 D+6.0 1.0 ✓
2024-10-26 MN President D+3.0 D+4.2 1.2 ✓
2024-10-26 MN President D+3.0 D+4.2 1.2 ✓
2024-10-25 VA President D+2.0 D+5.8 3.8 ✓
2024-10-25 VA President D+2.0 D+5.8 3.8 ✓
2024-10-25 TX President R+6.0 R+13.7 7.7 ✓
2024-10-14 OH President R+7.0 R+11.2 4.2 ✓
2024-10-14 NC President R+5.0 R+3.2 1.8 ✓
2024-10-14 NV President R+2.0 R+3.1 1.1 ✓
2024-10-14 WI President R+2.0 R+0.9 1.1 ✓
2024-10-14 MI President Even R+1.4 1.4 —
2024-10-13 PA President R+3.0 R+1.7 1.3 ✓
2024-10-09 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-10-02 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-09-25 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-09-22 NM President D+6.0 D+6.0 0.0 ✓
2024-09-22 VA President D+3.0 D+5.8 2.8 ✓
2024-09-22 MN President D+3.0 D+4.2 1.2 ✓
2024-09-22 NC President R+3.0 R+3.2 0.2 ✓
2024-09-22 NV President R+1.0 R+3.1 2.1 ✓
2024-09-22 GA President R+3.0 R+2.2 0.8 ✓
2024-09-22 AZ President R+2.0 R+5.5 3.5 ✓
2024-09-22 WI President Even R+0.9 0.9 —
2024-09-22 MI President Even R+1.4 1.4 —
2024-09-22 National President R+13.0 R+1.5 11.5 ✓
2024-09-22 PA President Even R+1.7 1.7 —
2024-09-18 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-09-11 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-09-04 National President R+1.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-08-28 National President R+2.0 R+1.5 0.5 ✓
2024-08-21 National President R+3.0 R+1.5 1.5 ✓
2024-08-20 MT President R+23.0 R+19.9 3.1 ✓
2024-08-20 MT President R+23.0 R+19.9 3.1 ✓
2024-08-19 NV President R+2.0 R+3.1 1.1 ✓
2024-08-19 WI President D+1.0 R+0.9 1.9 ✗
2024-08-17 OH President R+7.0 R+11.2 4.2 ✓
2024-08-17 AZ President R+2.0 R+5.5 3.5 ✓
2024-08-17 MI President D+1.0 R+1.4 2.4 ✗
2024-08-17 PA President D+1.0 R+1.7 2.7 ✗
2024-08-14 National President R+4.0 R+1.5 2.5 ✓
2024-08-07 National President R+5.0 R+1.5 3.5 ✓
2024-07-31 National President R+5.0 R+1.5 3.5 ✓
2024-07-24 National President R+7.0 R+1.5 5.5 ✓
2024-02-12 National President R+3.0 R+1.5 1.5 ✓
2022-11-01 National Generic Ballot R+5.0 R+2.6 2.4 ✓
2022-10-25 National Generic Ballot R+7.0 R+2.6 4.4 ✓
2022-10-23 GA Governor R+10.0 R+7.5 2.5 ✓
2022-10-23 GA Senate R+5.0 D+1.0 6.0 ✗
2022-10-19 PA Governor D+3.0 D+14.8 11.8 ✓
2022-10-19 PA Senate D+2.0 D+4.9 2.9 ✓
2022-10-18 National Generic Ballot R+4.0 R+2.6 1.4 ✓
2022-10-15 NV Governor R+5.0 R+1.5 3.5 ✓
2022-10-15 NV Senate R+5.0 D+0.8 5.8 ✗
2022-10-11 National Generic Ballot R+7.0 R+2.6 4.4 ✓
2022-10-04 National Generic Ballot R+4.0 R+2.6 1.4 ✓
2022-09-27 National Generic Ballot R+1.0 R+2.6 1.6 ✓
2022-09-20 National Generic Ballot R+2.0 R+2.6 0.6 ✓
2022-09-13 National Generic Ballot R+1.0 R+2.6 1.6 ✓
2020-10-31 PA President D+3.0 D+1.2 1.8 ✓
2020-10-31 OH President R+4.0 R+8.0 4.0 ✓
2020-10-30 FL President D+1.0 R+3.4 4.4 ✗
2020-10-30 National President D+1.0 D+4.4 3.4 ✓
2020-10-28 NC Senate D+3.0 R+1.8 4.8 ✗
2020-10-28 AZ Senate D+5.0 D+2.4 2.7 ✓
2020-10-28 NC President R+1.0 R+1.4 0.4 ✓
2020-10-28 AZ President R+4.0 D+0.3 4.3 ✗
2020-10-26 National President R+1.0 D+4.4 5.4 ✗
2020-10-20 NC Senate Even R+1.8 1.8 —
2020-10-20 NC President R+1.0 R+1.4 0.4 ✓
2020-10-20 FL President R+4.0 R+3.4 0.6 ✓
2020-10-18 AZ Senate D+2.0 D+2.4 0.4 ✓
2020-10-18 PA President D+3.0 D+1.2 1.8 ✓
2020-10-18 OH President D+1.0 R+8.0 9.0 ✗
2020-10-18 AZ President D+2.0 D+0.3 1.7 ✓
2020-10-17 National President D+3.0 D+4.4 1.4 ✓
2020-10-10 National President D+5.0 D+4.4 0.6 ✓
2020-10-05 TX Senate R+9.0 R+9.6 0.6 ✓
2020-10-05 TX President R+7.0 R+5.6 1.4 ✓
2020-10-03 National President D+12.0 D+4.4 7.6 ✓
2020-09-26 National President D+8.0 D+4.4 3.6 ✓
2020-09-24 NV President D+1.0 D+2.4 1.4 ✓
2020-09-24 NH President D+14.0 D+7.4 6.7 ✓
2020-09-19 National President D+1.0 D+4.4 3.4 ✓
2020-09-12 National President R+0.5 D+4.4 4.9 ✗
2020-09-07 NC Senate D+2.7 R+1.8 4.5 ✗
2020-09-07 NC President R+0.8 R+1.4 0.6 ✓
2020-09-05 National President D+1.7 D+4.4 2.7 ✓
2018-10-30 National Generic Ballot R+1.0 D+8.5 9.5 ✗
2018-10-23 National Generic Ballot D+3.0 D+8.5 5.5 ✓
2018-10-16 National Generic Ballot D+3.0 D+8.5 5.5 ✓
2018-10-09 National Generic Ballot D+1.0 D+8.5 7.5 ✓
2018-10-02 National Generic Ballot Even D+8.5 8.5 —
2018-09-25 National Generic Ballot D+5.0 D+8.5 3.5 ✓
2018-09-18 National Generic Ballot D+3.0 D+8.5 5.5 ✓
2018-09-14 KY-6 House Even R+3.2 3.2 —
2018-09-12 PA Governor D+12.0 D+17.1 5.1 ✓
2018-09-12 PA Senate D+14.0 D+13.1 0.9 ✓
2018-09-11 National Generic Ballot D+5.0 D+8.5 3.5 ✓
2018-09-10 FL Governor D+6.0 R+0.4 6.4 ✗
2018-09-10 FL Senate D+1.0 R+0.1 1.1 ✗
2018-09-08 TX Governor R+13.0 R+13.3 0.3 ✓
2018-09-08 TX Senate R+3.0 R+2.6 0.4 ✓
2017-11-02 VA Governor Even D+8.9 8.9 —
2017-10-31 NJ Governor D+15.0 D+14.1 0.9 ✓
2016-11-04 PA President R+2.0 R+0.7 1.3 ✓
2016-11-04 OH President D+1.0 R+8.1 9.1 ✗
2016-11-04 NV President Even D+2.4 2.4 —
2016-11-04 NH President D+6.0 D+0.4 5.6 ✓
2016-11-04 NC President D+6.0 R+3.7 9.7 ✗
2016-11-04 FL President D+2.0 R+1.2 3.2 ✗
2016-11-04 National President D+2.0 D+2.2 0.2 ✓
2016-11-04 FL Senate R+14.0 R+7.7 6.3 ✓
2016-11-04 PA Senate R+4.0 R+1.4 2.6 ✓
2016-11-04 NH Senate D+8.0 D+0.1 7.9 ✓
2016-11-04 OH Senate R+14.0 R+20.9 6.9 ✓
2016-11-04 NV Senate Even D+2.4 2.4 —
2016-11-04 NC Senate D+1.0 R+5.7 6.7 ✗
2016-10-31 PA President D+1.0 R+0.7 1.7 ✗
2016-10-31 OH President D+3.0 R+8.1 11.1 ✗
2016-10-31 NV President Even D+2.4 2.4 —
2016-10-31 NH President D+4.0 D+0.4 3.6 ✓
2016-10-31 NC President D+3.0 R+3.7 6.7 ✗
2016-10-31 FL President Even R+1.2 1.2 —
2016-10-31 National President Even D+2.2 2.2 —
2016-10-31 FL Senate R+7.0 R+7.7 0.7 ✓
2016-10-31 PA Senate D+4.0 R+1.4 5.4 ✗
2016-10-31 NH Senate D+2.0 D+0.1 1.9 ✓
2016-10-31 OH Senate R+8.0 R+20.9 12.9 ✓
2016-10-31 NV Senate D+2.0 D+2.4 0.4 ✓
2016-10-31 NC Senate R+4.0 R+5.7 1.7 ✓
2016-10-30 UT President R+11.0 R+18.1 7.1 ✓
2016-10-30 UT Senate R+32.0 R+41.1 9.1 ✓
2016-10-26 PA President D+7.0 R+0.7 7.7 ✗
2016-10-26 OH President D+4.0 R+8.1 12.1 ✗
2016-10-26 NV President D+1.0 D+2.4 1.4 ✓
2016-10-26 NH President D+8.0 D+0.4 7.6 ✓
2016-10-26 NC President D+3.0 R+3.7 6.7 ✗
2016-10-26 FL President R+6.0 R+1.2 4.8 ✓
2016-10-26 National President Even D+2.2 2.2 —
2016-10-26 FL Senate R+7.0 R+7.7 0.7 ✓
2016-10-26 PA Senate D+6.0 R+1.4 7.4 ✗
2016-10-26 NH Senate D+3.0 D+0.1 2.9 ✓
2016-10-26 OH Senate R+7.0 R+20.9 13.9 ✓
2016-10-26 NV Senate D+1.0 D+2.4 1.4 ✓
2016-10-26 NC Senate R+5.0 R+5.7 0.7 ✓
2016-10-23 UT President R+4.0 R+18.1 14.1 ✓
2016-10-23 TX President R+7.0 R+9.0 2.0 ✓
2016-10-23 ID President R+19.0 R+31.8 12.8 ✓
2016-10-23 UT Senate R+30.0 R+41.1 11.1 ✓
2016-10-22 National President D+1.0 D+2.2 1.2 ✓
2016-10-21 PA President D+5.0 R+0.7 5.7 ✗
2016-10-21 OH President R+2.0 R+8.1 6.1 ✓
2016-10-21 NV President D+4.0 D+2.4 1.6 ✓
2016-10-21 NC President D+3.0 R+3.7 6.7 ✗
2016-10-21 FL President D+3.0 R+1.2 4.2 ✗
2016-10-21 FL Senate R+7.0 R+7.7 0.7 ✓
2016-10-21 PA Senate D+3.0 R+1.4 4.4 ✗
2016-10-21 OH Senate R+8.0 R+20.9 12.9 ✓
2016-10-21 NV Senate D+2.0 D+2.4 0.4 ✓
2016-10-21 NC Senate R+2.0 R+5.7 3.7 ✓
2016-10-18 National President R+3.0 D+2.2 5.2 ✗
2016-10-15 UT President R+2.0 R+18.1 16.1 ✓
2016-10-15 UT Senate R+32.0 R+41.1 9.1 ✓
2016-10-14 National President D+2.0 D+2.2 0.2 ✓
2016-10-10 National President D+4.0 D+2.2 1.8 ✓
2016-10-05 National President D+1.0 D+2.2 1.2 ✓
2016-10-01 National President D+1.0 D+2.2 1.2 ✓
2016-09-27 National President D+1.0 D+2.2 1.2 ✓
2016-09-20 National President R+5.0 D+2.2 7.2 ✗
2016-09-17 NV President R+3.0 D+2.4 5.4 ✗
2016-09-17 NV Senate R+4.0 D+2.4 6.4 ✗
2016-09-12 National President R+2.0 D+2.2 4.2 ✗
2014-12-03 LA Senate R+16.0 R+11.9 4.1 ✓
2014-11-18 LA Senate R+15.0 R+11.9 3.1 ✓
2014-10-30 National Generic Ballot R+3.0 R+5.6 2.6 ✓
2014-10-29 NH Governor D+9.0 D+5.0 4.1 ✓
2014-10-29 IA Governor R+18.0 R+21.7 3.7 ✓
2014-10-29 CT Governor D+1.0 D+2.3 1.3 ✓
2014-10-29 AK Governor D+7.0 D+2.2 4.8 ✓
2014-10-29 IA Senate R+1.0 R+8.3 7.3 ✓
2014-10-29 AK Senate R+5.0 R+2.1 2.9 ✓
2014-10-29 NH Senate D+7.0 D+3.2 3.8 ✓
2014-10-28 AR Governor R+7.0 R+13.9 6.9 ✓
2014-10-28 AR Senate R+7.0 R+17.1 10.1 ✓
2014-10-28 NC Senate D+1.0 R+1.6 2.6 ✗
2014-10-26 GA Governor R+6.0 R+7.9 1.9 ✓
2014-10-26 GA Senate Even R+7.7 7.7 —
2014-10-24 SD Senate R+14.0 R+20.9 6.9 ✓
2014-10-23 National Generic Ballot R+2.0 R+5.6 3.6 ✓
2014-10-22 LA Senate R+4.0 R+11.9 7.9 ✓
2014-10-22 CO Governor R+2.0 D+3.3 5.3 ✗
2014-10-22 CO Senate R+6.0 R+1.9 4.1 ✓
2014-10-21 IL Governor R+1.0 R+3.9 2.9 ✓
2014-10-21 MI Governor R+3.0 R+4.1 1.1 ✓
2014-10-21 MI Senate D+9.0 D+13.3 4.3 ✓
2014-10-20 WI Governor D+1.0 R+5.7 6.7 ✗
2014-10-20 KS Governor D+7.0 R+3.7 10.7 ✗
2014-10-20 KS Senate R+5.0 D+10.6 15.6 ✗
2014-10-16 National Generic Ballot Even R+5.6 5.6 —
2014-10-16 FL Governor Even R+1.1 1.1 —
2014-10-15 CT Governor R+7.0 D+2.3 9.3 ✗
2014-10-15 AZ Governor R+5.0 R+11.8 6.8 ✓
2014-10-15 KY Senate R+8.0 R+15.5 7.5 ✓
2014-10-14 MA Governor R+2.0 R+1.9 0.1 ✓
2014-10-14 AR Governor R+2.0 R+13.9 11.9 ✓
2014-10-14 AR Senate R+3.0 R+17.1 14.1 ✓
2014-10-13 LA Senate R+9.0 R+11.9 2.9 ✓
2014-10-10 AK Governor D+9.0 D+2.2 6.8 ✓
2014-10-10 AK Senate R+3.0 R+2.1 0.9 ✓
2014-10-09 National Generic Ballot Even R+5.6 5.6 —
2014-10-09 IA Senate R+3.0 R+8.3 5.3 ✓
2014-10-08 ME Governor R+1.0 R+4.8 3.8 ✓
2014-10-08 KS Senate R+12.0 D+10.6 22.6 ✗
2014-10-06 NC Senate D+2.0 R+1.6 3.6 ✗
2014-10-02 National Generic Ballot D+2.0 R+5.6 7.6 ✗
2014-10-02 National Generic Ballot D+2.0 R+5.6 7.6 ✗
2014-10-01 TX Governor R+11.0 R+20.4 9.4 ✓
2014-10-01 TX Senate R+21.0 R+27.2 6.2 ✓
2014-09-30 GA Governor R+6.0 R+7.9 1.9 ✓
2014-09-30 WV Senate R+11.0 R+27.7 16.7 ✓
2014-09-30 GA Senate R+4.0 R+7.7 3.7 ✓
2014-09-29 CO Governor D+4.0 D+3.3 0.7 ✓
2014-09-29 MN Governor D+10.0 D+5.6 4.4 ✓
2014-09-29 CO Senate R+1.0 R+1.9 0.9 ✓
2014-09-29 MN Senate D+8.0 D+10.2 2.2 ✓
2014-09-25 National Generic Ballot D+1.0 R+5.6 6.6 ✗
2014-09-24 IL Governor D+2.0 R+3.9 5.9 ✗
2014-09-24 RI Governor D+5.0 D+4.5 0.5 ✓
2014-09-24 AR Governor R+4.0 R+13.9 9.9 ✓
2014-09-24 RI Senate D+35.0 D+41.3 6.3 ✓
2014-09-24 AR Senate R+7.0 R+17.1 10.1 ✓
2014-09-24 IL Senate D+14.0 D+10.9 3.2 ✓
2014-09-23 AK Governor D+5.0 D+2.2 2.8 ✓
2014-09-23 AK Senate R+5.0 R+2.1 2.9 ✓
2014-09-22 NY Governor D+17.0 D+14.7 2.3 ✓
2014-09-22 NM Governor R+13.0 R+14.5 1.5 ✓
2014-09-22 NM Senate D+13.0 D+11.1 1.9 ✓
2014-09-18 National Generic Ballot Even R+5.6 5.6 —
2014-09-17 MI Governor R+6.0 R+4.1 1.9 ✓
2014-09-17 IA Governor R+6.0 R+21.7 15.7 ✓
2014-09-17 IA Senate Even R+8.3 8.3 —
2014-09-17 MI Senate D+2.0 D+13.3 11.3 ✓
2014-09-16 MA Governor Even R+1.9 1.9 —
2014-09-16 KS Governor D+4.0 R+3.7 7.7 ✗
2014-09-16 MA Senate D+18.0 D+23.9 5.9 ✓
2014-09-16 KS Senate R+5.0 D+10.6 15.6 ✗
2014-09-15 GA Governor R+1.0 R+7.9 6.9 ✓
2014-09-15 WI Governor R+2.0 R+5.7 3.7 ✓
2014-09-15 GA Senate R+5.0 R+7.7 2.7 ✓
2014-09-11 National Generic Ballot D+3.0 R+5.6 8.6 ✗
2014-09-11 DE Senate D+15.0 D+13.6 1.4 ✓
2014-09-10 NH Governor D+11.0 D+5.0 6.1 ✓
2014-09-10 NH Senate D+3.0 D+3.2 0.2 ✓
2014-09-09 FL Governor D+2.0 R+1.1 3.1 ✗
2014-09-09 HI Governor D+1.0 D+12.4 11.4 ✓
2014-09-09 HI Senate D+32.0 D+42.1 10.1 ✓
2014-09-09 NC Senate D+6.0 R+1.6 7.6 ✗
2014-09-08 OH Governor R+20.0 R+30.6 10.6 ✓

Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.

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