National Research
25 scored general-election polls (2014–2021) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 0.2 pts | R+0.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 9 | 4.0 pts | D+3.5 | 88% |
| 2018 | 4 | 8.8 pts | R+8.8 | 75% |
| 2016 | 6 | 3.0 pts | D+0.4 | 40% |
| 2014 | 5 | 3.7 pts | D+0.8 | 50% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-15 | NJ Governor | D+3.0 | D+3.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-02 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | D+1.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-02 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | D+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-14 | GA Senate | Even | R+1.8 | 1.8 | — |
| 2020-10-14 | GA President | D+4.0 | D+0.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | IA Senate | R+1.0 | R+6.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | IA President | D+2.0 | R+8.2 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-06 | MI-3 House | R+7.0 | R+5.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-05 | MI Senate | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-05 | MI President | D+9.0 | D+2.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-15 | NJ Senate | D+2.0 | D+11.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-08 | NJ Senate | D+2.0 | D+11.2 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-03 | NJ-3 House | R+4.0 | D+1.3 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-26 | NJ-11 House | D+3.0 | D+14.6 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC Senate | R+7.0 | R+5.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-16 | NC Governor | R+4.0 | D+0.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-11 | NC President | Even | R+3.7 | 3.7 | — |
| 2016-09-11 | NC Senate | R+5.0 | R+5.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-11 | NC Governor | R+2.0 | D+0.2 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 2014-10-29 | NC Senate | Even | R+1.6 | 1.6 | — |
| 2014-10-17 | NC Senate | R+1.0 | R+1.6 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | NJ-3 House | R+7.0 | R+9.6 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-01 | FL-2 House | R+6.0 | D+1.1 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 2014-09-26 | NC Senate | D+5.0 | R+1.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.