University of Southern California Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research
23 scored general-election polls (2016–2020) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 8 | 5.4 pts | D+5.4 | 100% |
| 2018 | 6 | 5.1 pts | D+4.8 | 100% |
| 2016 | 9 | 5.0 pts | R+5.0 | 11% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | National President | D+10.9 | D+4.4 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.7 | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | National President | D+11.6 | D+4.4 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.6 | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-28 | National President | D+10.6 | D+4.4 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.9 | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-14 | National President | D+10.7 | D+4.4 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-31 | National Generic Ballot | D+15.0 | D+8.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+17.0 | D+8.5 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+13.0 | D+8.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | CA Governor | D+23.0 | D+23.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | CA Senate | D+13.0 | D+8.3 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-07 | National Generic Ballot | D+14.0 | D+8.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | National President | R+3.2 | D+2.2 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-28 | National President | R+3.6 | D+2.2 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-21 | National President | D+0.9 | D+2.2 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | National President | R+1.6 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-07 | National President | R+2.0 | D+2.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-30 | National President | R+3.9 | D+2.2 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | National President | R+3.4 | D+2.2 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-16 | National President | R+5.4 | D+2.2 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-09 | National President | R+3.1 | D+2.2 | 5.3 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.