Morning Consult
204 scored general-election polls (2016–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39 | 4.0 pts | D+4.0 | 42% |
| 2022 | 29 | 6.1 pts | D+6.1 | 0% |
| 2020 | 97 | 4.5 pts | D+4.3 | 87% |
| 2018 | 14 | 3.1 pts | R+0.7 | 100% |
| 2016 | 25 | 3.6 pts | D+3.3 | 52% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | National Generic Ballot | RV | Democrats 46.00% – Republicans 42.00% | D+4.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | National Generic Ballot | DEM 46.00% – GOP 42.00% | D+4.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-01 | MD President | D+33.0 | D+28.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-01 | OH President | R+9.0 | R+11.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-01 | OH President | R+9.0 | R+11.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-01 | FL President | R+5.0 | R+13.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-01 | FL President | R+5.0 | R+13.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | TX President | R+7.0 | R+13.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | TX President | R+7.0 | R+13.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | National President | D+2.0 | R+1.5 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-31 | National President | D+2.0 | R+1.5 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | MI President | D+1.0 | R+1.4 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | Even | R+1.7 | 1.7 | — |
| 2024-10-29 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | AZ President | Even | R+5.5 | 5.5 | — |
| 2024-10-29 | AZ President | Even | R+5.5 | 5.5 | — |
| 2024-10-27 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-20 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-15 | OH President | R+7.0 | R+11.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-13 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-06 | National President | D+5.0 | R+1.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-29 | National President | D+5.0 | R+1.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-22 | National President | D+5.0 | R+1.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-15 | National President | D+6.0 | R+1.5 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-11 | National President | D+5.0 | R+1.5 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-08 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-04 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-25 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-18 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-11 | National President | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-08-04 | National President | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-28 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-24 | National President | D+1.0 | R+1.5 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2024-07-22 | National President | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-07-15 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-04 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-29 | National Generic Ballot | Even | R+2.6 | 2.6 | — |
| 2022-10-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-20 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+2.6 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-05 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-02 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-10-01 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-29 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | R+2.6 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-20 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+2.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-17 | National Generic Ballot | D+4.0 | R+2.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-11 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+2.6 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-10 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+2.6 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | TX Senate | R+4.2 | R+9.6 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | SC Senate | R+2.2 | R+10.3 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC Senate | D+4.9 | R+1.8 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | MI Senate | D+5.7 | D+1.7 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | KY Senate | R+11.3 | R+19.5 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | CO Senate | D+7.9 | D+9.3 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | AZ Senate | D+3.5 | D+2.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | AL Senate | R+12.1 | R+20.4 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | WI President | D+13.3 | D+0.6 | 12.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | TX President | Even | R+5.6 | 5.6 | — |
| 2020-10-26 | SC President | R+6.6 | R+11.7 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | PA President | D+8.7 | D+1.2 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | OH President | R+2.6 | R+8.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | NC President | D+0.7 | R+1.4 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | MO President | R+9.4 | R+15.4 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | MN President | D+9.3 | D+7.1 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | MI President | D+7.3 | D+2.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | IN President | R+11.4 | R+16.1 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | GA President | D+2.4 | D+0.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | FL President | D+6.1 | R+3.4 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-26 | CO President | D+12.9 | D+13.5 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-26 | AZ President | D+2.3 | D+0.3 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-24 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-21 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-18 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | TX Senate | R+5.0 | R+9.6 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | SC Senate | D+2.0 | R+10.3 | 12.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | NC Senate | D+6.0 | R+1.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | MI Senate | D+6.0 | D+1.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | GA Senate | R+2.0 | R+1.8 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | CO Senate | D+8.0 | D+9.3 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | AZ Senate | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | WI President | D+12.0 | D+0.6 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | TX President | D+1.0 | R+5.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | SC President | R+6.0 | R+11.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | PA President | D+9.0 | D+1.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | OH President | R+2.0 | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | MN President | D+9.0 | D+7.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | MI President | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | GA President | Even | D+0.2 | 0.2 | — |
| 2020-10-15 | FL President | D+7.0 | R+3.4 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | CO President | D+16.0 | D+13.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-15 | AZ President | R+1.0 | D+0.3 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-15 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-12 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-09 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-09 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-06 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | National President | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-27 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-26 | AZ Senate | D+13.0 | D+2.4 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-24 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-21 | National President | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-19 | National President | D+7.0 | D+4.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-18 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | TX Senate | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | SC Senate | R+1.0 | R+10.3 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | NC Senate | D+9.0 | R+1.8 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-15 | MI Senate | D+7.0 | D+1.7 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | KY Senate | R+15.0 | R+19.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | GA Senate | D+1.0 | R+1.8 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2020-09-15 | CO Senate | D+7.0 | D+9.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | AZ Senate | D+9.0 | D+2.4 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | AL Senate | R+18.0 | R+20.4 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | SC President | R+6.0 | R+11.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-15 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National President | D+12.0 | D+4.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National President | D+10.0 | D+4.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-12 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-11 | WI President | D+9.0 | D+0.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-09 | National President | D+8.0 | D+4.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-08 | MN President | D+4.0 | D+7.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-06 | National President | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-03 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | D+8.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-11-01 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | D+8.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-18 | National Generic Ballot | D+6.0 | D+8.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-13 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-07 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | PA Governor | D+12.0 | D+17.1 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-01 | PA Senate | D+15.0 | D+13.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-28 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-22 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | D+8.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | D+8.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+10.0 | D+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-06 | OH Governor | R+1.0 | R+3.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-06 | OH Senate | D+16.0 | D+6.9 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-11-04 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | National Generic Ballot | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-29 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | National President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-29 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-27 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-27 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-19 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-19 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-14 | National Generic Ballot | D+7.0 | R+1.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-14 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-10 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-10 | National President | D+5.0 | D+2.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-08 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-08 | National President | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-06 | National Generic Ballot | D+2.0 | R+1.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-06 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-01 | National Generic Ballot | D+9.0 | R+1.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-10-01 | National President | D+6.0 | D+2.2 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-26 | National Generic Ballot | D+8.0 | R+1.0 | 9.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-26 | National President | D+3.0 | D+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-23 | National Generic Ballot | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-23 | National President | R+1.0 | D+2.2 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-15 | National Generic Ballot | D+5.0 | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2016-09-15 | National President | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.