Minnesota Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat
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Primary

Democratic Primary

Held August 11, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Amy Klobuchar ✓ 615,166 89.7%
Kobey J Layne 40,425 5.9%
Mohammad Wazwaz 10,596 1.5%
Po Vang 9,429 1.4%
Ole "Viking" Savior 5,844 0.9%
Thomas Evenstad 4,724 0.7%

Republican Primary

Held August 11, 2026.

CandidateVotes%
Lisa Demuth ✓ 179,759 43.1%
Mike Lindell 134,366 32.2%
Kendall Qualls 88,486 21.2%
John Krhin 5,786 1.4%
Ross Nova 3,786 0.9%
Raul J Estrada 3,058 0.7%
Loner Blue 2,287 0.6%

Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Tim Walz)
Party
Democrat
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Likely D our polls experts: Safe D
Polls
3 polls

PollingSource Rating

Likely D
Our polling average D+8.4 · 3 polls

Toss-up = under 3 pts · Lean = 3–6 · Likely = 6–10 · Safe = 10+ (our poll average). "D+12.6" = Democrat ahead by 12.6 points. Tilt = a slight edge, used for expert averages and some House ratings.

General Election Polling Trend

Showing the published average. The rating above uses this figure.

The right edge is that same average of the last three polls. This is an average, not a forecast.

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Expert Ratings

Cook Political Report

Solid D

Inside Elections

Likely Democrat

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe Democratic

Candidates

Amy Klobuchar

Amy Klobuchar Nominee

Democrat
Lisa Demuth

Lisa Demuth Nominee

Republican

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
48.7%
Republican
40.3%
Margin
D+8.4
Latest poll in average
Oct 12, 2026

LV = likely voters · RV = registered voters · ± = margin of error · R-sponsored / D-sponsored / I-sponsored = paid for by a Republican, Democratic, or Independent group · "missed 2024 by X pts" = that firm's average miss in 2024

Average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls. Fewer than three uses the polls that exist. The rating uses that average when the newest poll ended in the last 30 days. The table lists the polls in that average, plus the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

Pollster Date Sample MoE Dem Rep
SurveyUSA In average 2026-10-12 this poll 718 LV ±4.20 Amy Klobuchar 48.00% Lisa Demuth 41.00%
KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune In average 2026-10-07 this poll 800 LV ±3.50 Amy Klobuchar 50.00% Lisa Demuth 41.00%
Morning Consult (D) missed 2024 by 4.0 pts In average 2026-10-07 this poll 1000 RV ±3.10 Amy Klobuchar 48.00% Lisa Demuth 39.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota governor's race?

Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth 48.7% to 40.3% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+8.4 margin based on 3 polls, the last three or fewer.

Is the 2026 Minnesota governor's race competitive?

It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, the current rating band. An upset is not impossible.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Minnesota governor's race say?

The most recent poll in our average, from SurveyUSA (completed October 12, 2026), found Amy Klobuchar (D) at 48% and Lisa Demuth (R) at 41%.

When is the 2026 Minnesota governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of the last three scientific public polls, or fewer when fewer exist. One poll sets the rating when it ended in the last 30 days. We do not exclude pollsters. The table lists recent polls, including ones older than those three. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

No MN term limits; Walz seeking a third term

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