Data Targeting partisan·R
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 16.2 pts | D+16.2 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.3 pts | R+4.3 | 100% |
| 2016 | 2 | 2.8 pts | R+2.8 | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 5.9 pts | R+5.9 | 100% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-27 | NE Governor | R+7.0 | R+23.2 | 16.2 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-20 | FL-16 House | R+15.0 | R+11.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-07 | FL-16 House | R+15.0 | R+11.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2020-09-30 | FL-16 House | R+16.0 | R+11.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2016-10-11 | FL-13 House | D+2.0 | D+3.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-09 | FL-13 House | Even | D+3.8 | 3.8 | — |
| 2014-10-11 | FL-9 House | D+5.0 | D+10.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.