The Political Matrix/The Listener Group
15 scored general-election polls (2018–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 19.8 pts | D+19.8 | 67% |
| 2020 | 4 | 3.8 pts | R+1.8 | 75% |
| 2018 | 5 | 2.8 pts | R+0.7 | 60% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-06 | FL Governor | R+4.0 | R+19.4 | 15.4 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | PA Senate | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | GA Senate | D+18.0 | D+1.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 2022-10-27 | FL Governor | D+6.8 | R+19.4 | 26.2 | ✗ |
| 2022-09-24 | FL-1 House | R+1.8 | R+35.7 | 33.9 | ✓ |
| 2022-09-21 | FL Governor | D+6.0 | R+19.4 | 25.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-11-02 | FL President | R+3.8 | R+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-27 | FL President | D+0.5 | R+3.4 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-23 | FL President | R+4.1 | R+3.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-19 | FL President | R+13.3 | R+3.4 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | FL Governor | R+7.2 | R+0.4 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-10-29 | FL Senate | D+0.4 | R+0.1 | 0.5 | ✗ |
| 2018-10-20 | FL-1 House | R+30.7 | R+34.1 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Governor | R+2.2 | R+0.4 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2018-09-29 | FL Senate | D+1.2 | R+0.1 | 1.3 | ✗ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.